Thousands of tourists fled wildfires on the Greek island of Rhodes this week, and many more endured blistering heat across the US Southwest, amid what scientists now call the world’s warmest month on record.
According to a study released on Thursday by Germany’s Leipzig University, the average worldwide temperature in July 2023 will be around 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) higher than the pre-industrial mean.
This would be at least 0.2C (0.4F) warmer than July 2019, the previous front-runner in the 174-year observational record, according to European Union data.
Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University, stated, “The margin of difference between now and July 2019 is so substantial that we can already say with absolute certainty that it is going to be the warmest July”.
“It was evident by mid-July that it was going to be a record warm month, and provided an indicator of a planet that will continue to warm as long as we burn fossil fuels”, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.
The global mean temperature for July is typically approximately 16C (61F), including the Southern Hemisphere winter. However, it has risen to approximately 17C (63F) this July.
“Furthermore, we may have to go back thousands if not tens of thousands of years to find similarly warm conditions on our planet”, Haustein continued.
Early, less precise climate records derived from ice cores and tree rings indicate that the Earth has not been this hot in 120,000 years.
Haustein’s study is based on preliminary temperature data and weather models, including anticipated temperatures until the end of this month, but it has been checked by scientists who are not involved with the company.
The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also stated on Thursday that July 2023 was extremely likely to break the record, but would not declare it until all finalized data was available.
Piers Forster, a climate scientist at Leeds University in the United Kingdom, stated, “July is almost certainly the hottest month in the instrumental record”.
“The result is confirmed by several independent datasets combining measurements in the ocean and over land. It is statistically robust”, Forster added.
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