In a recent election outcome, Pakistani voters have voiced their disillusionment with the nation’s dominant military, signaling a shift in public sentiment. However, despite this expression, the military’s influence is poised to expand further, albeit from the shadows, with significant implications for the country’s governance and economy. Shehbaz Sharif, anticipated to assume the role of prime minister, is likely to function more as a symbolic figurehead, with the military exerting substantial control behind the scenes, according to an anonymous source familiar with the situation.
The military’s ascendancy comes at a critical juncture for Pakistan, grappling with severe inflation, mounting debt, and the imminent need for another International Monetary Fund bailout. Many observers are skeptical about the prospects of a weak coalition government supported by the military, fearing it will follow the footsteps of previous administrations that struggled to address the nation’s challenges effectively.
Yousuf Nazar, a former Citigroup Inc. banker and author, remarked that while the military enjoys more credibility compared to politicians, its historical track record in economic management is questionable.
The recent agreement between Pakistan’s traditional political factions, the Sharif and Bhutto clans, to form a government marks a significant development following a prolonged stalemate post the inconclusive February 8 election. However, this coalition, expected to be led by Shehbaz Sharif, sidelines former premier Imran Khan, who fell out of favor with the military and ended up incarcerated. Khan’s party, though securing the most seats, failed to secure a majority, signaling public resistance to military interference in the electoral process.
Political commentator Omar Warraich underscored the precarious position of the new coalition government, entirely reliant on military support to sustain itself, which could be withdrawn if policy disagreements arise.
Historically, Pakistan has witnessed a cyclical pattern of military interventions in governance, with leaders like Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif experiencing both support and ouster by the military. Shehbaz Sharif, seen as more accommodating to military interests, has already demonstrated a willingness to collaborate, evidenced by legislation empowering the military and fostering investment initiatives during his previous tenure.
However, the military’s enhanced influence raises concerns about democratic backsliding, as highlighted by Pakistan’s downgrade to an “authoritarian regime” in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index.
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India, Pakistan’s longstanding rival, anticipates a more entrenched military role amidst the fractured political landscape, potentially complicating prospects for bilateral relations.
Some voices in Pakistan view military involvement favorably, citing past periods of stability and economic growth under military rule. Nonetheless, the military’s expanded role poses challenges, particularly in addressing the pressing economic crisis, now considered a national security imperative.
As Shehbaz Sharif assumes leadership, navigating IMF negotiations and implementing unpopular economic reforms will test his ability to balance military interests with public expectations. Failure to deliver on economic recovery could jeopardize both his position and the military’s newfound dominance.
