Lok Sabha Elections: Opposition Chances Grim In Bulandshahr Reserved Seat In Face Of BJP

Lucknow :In the second phase of Lok Sabha elections, voting will be held on 88 seats in 12 states. There are 8 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. In the second phase, elections are to be held on April 26 for Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh and Mathura parliamentary seats of Uttar Pradesh. Of these, Bulandshahr seat is reserved for Scheduled Caste. BJP has the best track record on this seat. BJP has won from here in the last two elections, and is preparing to score a hat-trick of victories in the 2024 elections. The surprising thing is that despite being a reserved seat, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has not yet won this seat. According to the 2011 census, about 80 percent of the population in Bulandshahr Lok Sabha constituency is Hindu. There are 19.81 percent Dalits in this.

BJP is the champion of victory on Bulandshahr seat: In the parliamentary history of Bulandshahr (reserved) seat, parliamentary elections have been held here 17 times so far. This seat was held by Congress in four elections from 1952 to 1971. BJP has won this seat 7 times and Congress 6 times. Candidates of Bharatiya Lok Dal (BLD), Janata Party Secular (JP-S), Janata Dal and Samajwadi Party (SP) have also won from here once each. BJP has won five consecutive elections in 1991, 96, 98, 99 and 2004. In 2009, SP broke BJP’s winning streak. BJP made a comeback with a landslide victory in 2014. Since then, BJP is in control here. Congress last won this seat in the 1984 general elections.

If we look at the results of the Bulandshahr parliamentary seat in the 2019 general elections, the main contest here was between Bhola Singh of BJP and Yogesh Verma of BSP. Bhola Singh was also the then MP from here, while Yogesh Verma was in the fray as a joint candidate of the BSP-SP alliance. Bhola Singh got 681,321 (60.56%) votes while Yogesh got 391,264 (34.28%) votes. Congress candidate Banshi Singh stood third by getting 29,465 (2.66%) votes. BJP had won this election by a huge margin of 2 lakh 90 thousand 57 votes. In 2014 elections, BJP candidate Bhola Singh hoisted the victory flag by securing 604,449 (59.83%) votes. BSP candidate Pradeep Kumar Jatav, who stood second, got only 182,476 (18.06%) votes. SP candidate Kamlesh stood third by getting 128,737 (12.74%) votes. RLD candidate Anju stood fourth in the race by getting 59116 (5.85%) votes. In this election, BJP’s Bhola Singh defeated the BSP candidate by a huge margin of 4 lakh 22 thousand 202 votes.

SP candidate Kamlesh won from here in the 2009 elections. Kamlesh got 2 lakh,36 thousand, 257 (35.34%) votes, whereas BJP candidate Ashok Kumar Pradhan, who stood second, got 170192 (25.46%) votes. BSP got 142186 (21.27%) votes and Congress got 100065 (14.97%) votes. SP candidate had won this election by a margin of 66 thousand votes.
Better record of BJP: BJP fought the 2014 and 2019 elections without any alliance. In the last elections there was an alliance of BSP-SP-Congress. Despite this, BJP won this seat by a huge margin of about 3 lakh votes. Congress-RLD were in alliance in 2014. At that time, BJP won this election by a margin of more than 4 lakh votes. This time SP-Congress are in alliance. RLD is with BJP, and BSP is in the fray alone. BJP’s strength has increased by coming together with RLD, although in terms of figures and equations, it alone is heavier than the opposition.

Situation of 2024 elections: This seat has also been held by BJP continuously for the last two times. BJP’s Bhola Singh is in the fray with the intention of scoring a hat-trick. The challenge before the BJP candidate is to stop the anger of Lodh voters. Indi alliance candidate Shivram Valmiki is contesting the first election. The challenge before him is to keep Hindu voters engaged. BSP candidate Girish Chandra Jatav is currently the MP from Nagina. The challenge is to mobilize the non-Jatav castes of the Dalit class. Except in 2009, BJP has been winning the Bulandshahr seat continuously since 1991. Girish Chandra is a seasoned leader compared to Congress candidate Shivram Valmiki, due to which now the election fight seems to be between BJP vs BSP.

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