Dalal Street is poised for a week of cautious optimism as the Indian stock market reopens following the Independence Day holiday.
Analysts say that global events, domestic policy announcements, and investor trends will largely determine market movement.
Experts highlight that developments such as the outcome of the Donald Trump–Vladimir Putin meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s GST reform announcement, movements in US markets, and the ongoing buying and selling patterns of foreign and domestic investors will play a crucial role in shaping sentiment.
Last week, the Nifty and Sensex ended a six-week losing streak, posting gains of around 1 per cent. However, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued net selling, offloading shares worth nearly ₹10,000 crore in the cash market.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) partially cushioned the impact by purchasing approximately ₹19,000 crore. Sector-wise, pharmaceutical and automobile stocks led the recovery, while FMCG shares lagged behind.
Global Developments: Trump-Putin Talks
One of the biggest triggers for markets this week is the outcome of the Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Although the meeting did not yield a ceasefire in Ukraine, both leaders indicated progress on negotiations. Analysts suggest that such signals could bolster global market sentiment and influence trading in India.
On the domestic front, Prime Minister Modi’s Independence Day announcement of GST 2.0 reforms is being viewed positively by investors.
The PM stated that the government plans to implement significant rate cuts by Diwali, particularly on essential goods, to create a more business- and consumer-friendly tax environment.
Analysts believe that these measures may improve market confidence and support equities.
Global cues from Wall Street will also impact market direction. Last week, the Dow ended higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined due to weaker industrial output data, despite stronger retail sales.
Corporate actions in India, including dividends, rights issues, stock splits, and bonus share announcements from over 100 companies, are likely to generate stock-specific movements this week.
The trend of FIIs and DIIs remains crucial. Additionally, crude oil prices, which eased following the Trump-Putin discussions, may provide some relief to markets, analysts said.
Investors will trigger sectoral rallies and selective corrections on Dalal Street as they assess multiple domestic and international factors.
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