The India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday that a depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is anticipated to travel northwestward and deepen into a cyclonic storm.
The Met Office reported in a bulletin that the depression was around 920 kilometres west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 kilometres south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 kilometres south of Porbandar, and 1,520 kilometres south of Karachi, Pakistan, at 5:30 am.
“It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea”, it warned.
According to the IMD, the emergence and deepening of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea is predicted to have a significant impact on the monsoon’s approach towards the Kerala coast.
However, the weather department did not provide an estimated date for the onset of the monsoon in Kerala.
According to private forecasting agency Skymet Weather, the monsoon may arrive in Kerala on June 8 or June 9, although it will be a meek and mild entry.
“These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea impede the monsoon’s progress deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats”, it warned.
Skymet had previously projected the commencement of the monsoon over Kerala on June 7 with a three days error margin.
The private weather forecasting agency stated, “The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria call for specified rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with”.
With a standard deviation of about seven days, the southwest monsoon usually arrives in Kerala on June 1.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted monsoon rains in Kerala by June 4 in mid-May.
The southeast monsoon came in the southern state on May 29 of last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.
Scientists argue that a little delayed commencement over Kerala does not guarantee that the monsoon would arrive late in other parts of the country. It also has no effect on overall rainfall across the country during the season.
Prior, the IMD stated that despite the emerging El Nino conditions, India is anticipated to receive normal rainfall throughout the southwest monsoon season.
Rainfall in Northwest India is forecast to be normal to below normal. normal rainfall at 94-106 percent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres is forecast in the East and northeast, central, and south peninsulas.
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