India Will Keep Shining Amidst Changing World Order
This week, amidst the bustling discussions surrounding the successful G-20 summit in Delhi and India’s commendable role in it, the power corridors of the Kremlin hinted at a brewing scenario in international relations. The visit of North Korean President Kim Jong Un to Russia has intensified concerns about the formation of another anti-Western bloc in an already fragmented world. Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia on his well-known private train, accepting an earlier invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reports indicate that Kim Jong Un will be a guest in Russia for several more days.
Both leaders have much in common, including their pronounced anti-Western perspectives. While Kim Jong Un is largely isolated on the global stage due to his nuclear tactics, President Putin has found himself with limited allies after the Ukraine invasion. A meeting between these two leaders could signify the rise of a new challenge to the American-led world order. The solidification of this potential alliance could dramatically alter the global landscape as we recognize it. It’s essential for India to be cognizant of the potential opportunities and pitfalls this scenario presents.
The world is closely watching the results of President Kim Jong Un’s visit. Both countries have remained tight-lipped about the outcomes of the five-hour bilateral summit between the two presidents, though their mutual interests are hardly clandestine. Russia is keen on obtaining ammunition for its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, while North Korea seeks access to Russian missile and weapons technology. Additionally, North Korea is interested in collaboration in areas such as food security and energy.
The deterioration of US-Russia relations has created an opening for Pyongyang to grow closer to the Kremlin. Moreover, its bond with China has tightened, particularly as Beijing’s ties with the Western world have chilled in the post-COVID era. With the support of two permanent UN Security Council members, Western-sponsored resolutions against North Korea are frequently vetoed or diluted. China might hope that North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict could alleviate some of the pressure on Beijing to provide military aid to Russia, granting it more flexibility in global diplomacy. Kim Jong Un’s unpredictability also bolsters China’s global position, as it compels the US and its allies to engage with Beijing. Thus, an empowered North Korea offers China a chance to remain a pivotal player in the global power game, even as its territorial ambitions strain its relations with neighbours and the US. The newly announced connectivity project between India, the Middle East, and Europe could further challenge China’s global influence, presenting an alternative to the China-led One Belt, One Road initiative. The implications of a beleaguered China on the global stage remain uncertain.
The emerging alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea now appears to encompass Iran as well. Recently, Iran secured a position within the BRICS group, which comprises Russia, China, India, and South Africa. There are hints that Pakistan might eventually join the Russia-China axis. Amidst economic distress and surging fuel prices, certain factions in Pakistan advocate for closer relations with Russia. Pakistan’s ties with the United States have been strained since the US military’s departure from Afghanistan. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has accused the US of plotting to overthrow his government.
Yet, the longevity and stability of this potential alliance remain uncertain. While it may serve their interests, the mutual trust required between leaders like Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, and Vladimir Putin to establish a genuine, enduring alliance seems challenging, especially given the inherent dynamics of authoritarian regimes.
In the ongoing tussle for global dominance between the United States and China, India has steadily fortified its standing as an alternative in an increasingly divided world order. Notably, India’s successful mediation, leading to an agreement despite G20 members’ opposition to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, signifies a transformative moment in global dynamics. Our role has evolved, becoming more influential and decisive than before. This suggests that even with our position on Ukraine, ties with the United States and the West remain unaffected. Instead, these nations have acknowledged and resonated with India’s perspective on ground realities. Today, as other Asian nations like Japan and South Korea intensify their ties with the US to counter China’s influence, India is charting its unique course. This echoes India’s position during the Cold War when it was instrumental in forming the Non-Aligned Movement, representing a third path distinct from the two primary ideological factions. The recent G20 declaration clearly conveys our stance: India is not tethered to any singular global power but stands in collaboration with all.
India’s diplomatic strategies are setting a compelling precedent for the developing world. In this light, PM Narendra Modi has reiterated India’s aspiration for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). India is rising as a dominant voice for the Global South and as a leading champion for the interests of less developed nations.
India’s diplomatic positioning is multifaceted. While we champion issues of the global south, we are also part of the Quad group, spearheaded by the United States and inclusive of Australia and Japan. Simultaneously, our membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia, reflects our commitment to global engagement aligned with national interests. Our invitation to Bangladesh for the G20 summit is a strategic move to counteract China’s growing influence in the region and to ensure a peaceful relationship along our shared border. This approach aligns with our recent strategy of building robust and strategic partnerships with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, effectively sidelining Pakistan. It’s noteworthy that, during the G20 summit, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was also specially invited, alongside Bangladesh.
Evidently, India is upholding ‘strategic autonomy’ by skillfully navigating between the West and the Russia-China bloc. As major powers vie for influence, India stands in a unique position. It retains open channels of communication with nations on opposing sides of this rivalry, offering India countless opportunities to demonstrate its significance and prowess.
