As the groundwork for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections kicks off, both the ruling BJP and the primary opposition party Congress are gearing up in their distinctive ways. However, the principal challenge facing the opposition lies in fielding a leader capable of countering Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s governance, presenting alternative policies, and effectively addressing Modi’s rhetoric.
At present, the potential opposition leaders in contention against Modi encompass figures like Mallikarjun Kharge, Nitish Kumar, and Rahul Gandhi himself. Despite possessing an array of strategies, the latter has struggled to effectively penetrate the target audience.
Delving into the strategic landscape, Modi’s policies have established direct communication with approximately 117 crore individuals in India, a significant portion of the country’s 140 crore population. Schemes such as the Free Ration Scheme (81 crores), Ayushman Bharat (22 crores), Ujjwala Scheme (10 crores), and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (4 crores) collectively cover this population. Deciphering this data reveals that the Modi government holds direct access to around 58 crore voters. Further analysis suggests that about 29 crore voters (assuming a 50% voting percentage) benefit from these schemes. Even if the BJP secures half of their votes and garners the trust of 10% of scheme beneficiaries, it could significantly sway the outcome in their favour. A voting turnout of approximately 43% is projected, potentially securing BJP over 300 seats, a five percent increase from 2019.
The prevailing sentiment among the populace appears to be aligning with BJP’s narrative surrounding national identity and Hindutva, akin to the Congress wave during the 1984 elections. The upcoming consecration of Lord Ram on January 22, 2024, is anticipated to further solidify this trend. BJP’s vote share is expected to surge by 0.5%, akin to Congress’ vote percentage in 1984, potentially propelling the NDA to secure more than 414 seats.
However, challenges persist for the INDI Alliance, where Nitish’s leadership faces reluctance, and Rahul Gandhi’s leadership has been rejected twice. Mallikarjun Kharge emerges as a potential candidate, aligning well with the North vs South divide, yet faces electoral infrastructure limitations compared to the BJP. The necessity for a leader capable of championing prevalent issues and sparking a nationwide movement remains crucial, even if it implies Rahul Gandhi stepping up for the task.
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