The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu from October 12 to 16. This weather pattern is attributed to a new cyclonic circulation expected to form over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.
The RMC indicated that the western Ghats and surrounding districts are likely to experience intense rainfall. Additionally, certain delta districts could receive up to 24.4 cm of rain on Sunday and Monday.
Chennai, along with Tiruvallur and Kancheepuram districts, may also see significant rainfall on Monday. The prevailing weather systems in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are contributing to increased moisture in the region.
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According to the RMC, most areas in Tamil Nadu, as well as Puducherry and Karaikal, are expected to experience moderate rainfall (up to 6 cm) until October 16. Over the past 24 hours, several coastal weather stations recorded rainfall, with Makkinampatti in Coimbatore district receiving the highest amount—12 cm.
Officials will closely monitor the interaction between these weather systems in anticipation of the northeast monsoon. The RMC noted that the southwest monsoon is expected to retreat from states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh within a few days, paving the way for the northeast monsoon.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the northeast monsoon is likely to set in around October 17. While the northeast monsoon typically begins around October 20, the IMD stated that it can start nine days before or after this date.
The RMC also mentioned that southern districts might face a rainfall deficit compared to northern regions. However, the central areas of the state are anticipated to receive abundant rain.
Additionally, the IMD has forecast above-normal rainfall for the southern peninsular region. The region includes Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, during the northeast monsoon. The IMD predicts enhanced downpour in Tamil Nadu during the third and fourth weeks of October.
Tamil Nadu generally receives an average of 44 cm of rainfall during the northeast monsoon. Which lasts from October to December. The meteorological department also highlighted the potential impact of La Niña. La Nina is a phenomenon that historically correlates with increased rainfall occurring 69 percent of the time during La Niña events since 1940.
In previous La Niña years, such as 2010, 2016, and 2023, TN experienced surplus rainfall in 2010 and 2023. While 2016 saw a deficit. The IMD noted that changing weather dynamics, including global warming, are affecting rainfall patterns during both the southwest and northeast monsoons. The department has improved its forecasting methods, achieving 85 percent accuracy in its predictions.
Meanwhile, the Tamil Nadu government is proactively preparing for the monsoon. District disaster management authorities are collaborating with various departmentsn to plan for potential flooding and inundation due to heavy rains. Local authorities have been directed to clean stormwater drains and perform essential road repairs to mitigate water stagnation and clogging.
