ORF Report Predicts Service Sector to Lead Job Creation, Forecasts 22% Increase in Employment by 2028

The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) has released a report titled “India Employment Outlook 2030: Navigating Sectoral Trends and Competencies,” forecasting a significant increase in overall employment and a decline in unemployment by 97 basis points by 2028. The report delves into the dynamics of India’s job market, highlighting sectoral trends and emphasizing the pivotal role of the service sector in driving employment growth.

Service Sector Leading Job Creation

According to the report, the service sector is poised to lead the surge in job creation, with each unit rise in services output contributing to a 0.12 percent increase in employment. This underscores the critical importance of the service industry as India progresses towards its USD 5 trillion economic milestone.

High-Opportunity Sub-Sectors

The report identifies ten high-opportunity sub-sectors within the service industry, including digital services, financial services, healthcare, hospitality, consumer retail, e-commerce, renewable energy, global capability centers, and MSME and startup ecosystems. These sectors are expected to experience rapid growth and offer significant employment opportunities.

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Empowering Women in the Service Sector

Highlighting the potential of the burgeoning service sector to empower women through employment, the report advocates for investment in women’s skilling, financial inclusion, and entrepreneurship. It emphasizes the need for inclusive economic growth by leveraging the opportunities presented by the service industry.

Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector

While the service sector shows promising growth prospects, the outlook for India’s manufacturing sector appears less optimistic. Despite initiatives like Make in India, employment in this sector has declined due to technological advancements and increased automation. The report suggests transitioning towards industrial value chains associated with the service sector to rejuvenate employment opportunities.

Policy Recommendations

Nilanjan Ghosh, Director at ORF and one of the report’s authors, emphasizes the importance of policymakers and public sector schemes collaborating with stakeholders to address employability and skilling gaps. He advocates for curriculum upgrades to ensure India’s talent pool is industry-ready.

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Role of Entrepreneurship in Future Employment

Ghosh underscores the critical role of entrepreneurship in driving future employment growth. He highlights the potential of a new class of entrepreneurs to stimulate job creation, expand India’s startup ecosystem, spur innovation, and promote youth participation. Gender sensitivity and inclusivity in future workplaces are also emphasized.

The ORF report provides valuable insights into India’s employment landscape, highlighting the opportunities and challenges across different sectors and advocating for proactive measures to ensure inclusive and sustainable economic growth.