The Indian bond market is gaining momentum, driven by steadily easing inflation and expectations of further interest rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to a recent report by Jefferies.
Consumer price inflation averaged 4.6 per cent over the last fiscal year and dropped sharply to 3.2 per cent in April 2025 the lowest since July 2019.
This decline is providing the RBI with more room to cut interest rates; it has already reduced policy rates by 50 basis points, with Jefferies forecasting an additional 75 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025.
Indian Bonds Outperform Developed Markets
Consequently, Indian government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, particularly to long-term investors navigating the evolving global economic landscape.
Jefferies highlights that India’s 10-year rupee-denominated government bond has outperformed the US 10-year Treasury bond by 51 per cent in US dollar terms since April 2020.
The report notes, “It is no longer unthinkable that the 10-year Indian government bond yield will trade below the ten-year Treasury bond yield,” signalling a significant shift in global bond market dynamics.
Rupee Strength And Emerging Market Trends Reinforce Positive Sentiment
Additionally, the strengthening Indian rupee and robust performance of local-currency emerging market bonds worldwide are bolstering investor confidence.
Also Read: Foreign Portfolio Investors Return To Indian Equity Markets After Months Of Outflows
Jefferies tracks a key global sovereign bond portfolio where India’s 15-year bond, offering a yield of 6.38 per cent, constitutes the largest single-country allocation at 25 per cent.
This reflects a structural shift as investors move away from traditional G7 debt instruments.
The report further states, “These bonds continue to outperform G7 government bonds, indicating a regime change from the Bretton Woods era, coupled with supply concerns impacting the long end of the US Treasury bond market.”
Outlook: India Positioned As A Safe Haven For Investors
Overall, with disinflationary pressures mounting and real interest rates remaining appealing, India’s bond market stands well poised to benefit from both domestic rate easing and increasing international interest in emerging market debt.
As global investors seek alternatives to volatile G7 bonds, India offers a compelling combination of relatively high yields, a stable macroeconomic outlook, and potential currency appreciation, making it a standout destination in the bond investment landscape.
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