India still stands like an oasis in this era of uncertainty.
The per capita availability of fruits and vegetables in India has increased by 7 kg and 12 kg, respectively, over the past decade, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI). However, challenges in India’s agricultural supply chain continue to affect food consumption across the country.
The report notes that states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu & Kashmir have shown growth in fruit and vegetable production. Conversely, northeastern states have seen a decline in per capita production.
High Production, Significant Losses
India produces 227 kg of fruits and vegetables per capita annually, exceeding the recommended 146 kg. Despite this, 30-35% of produce is lost due to poor harvesting, storage, transport, and packaging. These inefficiencies significantly impact overall consumption and the affordability of fresh produce.
Extreme weather conditions, such as heat and cold waves, have worsened the situation. According to the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR), a 1°C rise above 30°C during wheat’s grain-filling period can lower yields by 3-4%.
Food Prices and Inflation Trends
Retail inflation eased to 5.48% in November 2024 from over 6% in October, driven by a sharp drop in vegetable prices. However, protein inflation rose, contributing to higher core inflation. Food prices remain the primary driver of inflation, which is expected to average 4.8% in fiscal 2025.
The report highlights faster disinflation in middle- and high-income states due to labor migration from low-income states. It also notes that wage increases for non-agricultural laborers have little impact on food inflation, with rural inflation showing weak correlation to rising wages.
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