Sixty-seven percent of Gazans cast ballots against Hamas the day before its strikes

Rare polling data analyzed by a US-Palestinian scholar shows that many Gazans were hostile to Hamas before the group’s horrific October 7 attack on Israel, with some even characterizing its rule as a second occupation.

The findings stand out against the backdrop of rallies and counter-protests sparked by the attack, with the connection between Hamas and ordinary Gazans frequently being a source of contention.

“We find in our surveys that 67 percent of Palestinians in Gaza had little or no trust in Hamas in the period right before the attacks”, Amaney Jamal, dean of Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs, stated.

Jamal went on to say, “This is especially important because of the (erroneous) argument that all of Gaza supports Hamas, and therefore all of Gaza should be held accountable for the actions, atrocious actions of Hamas”.

Jamal is one of the primary forces behind the Arab Barometer, which conducts surveys and polling around the region, including in Gaza, where fieldwork ended on the eve of Israel’s attacks.

She claimed that Hamas, which won elections in the Palestinian territories in 2006 and is classified as a terrorist organization by the US and the EU, was viewed as corrupt and authoritarian by many respondents.

“75 percent said they couldn’t afford to feed their households in the previous 30 days. So, once again, this is a poor population, a culture that basically says the Hamas-led administration is corrupt”, Jamal explained.

“Who do you blame, when we ask? because of the siege, we assumed that Israel would be the main offender. However, more people mentioned Hamas corruption than the Israeli embargo”, Jamal stated.

Jamal, 52, who was born in California but raised in her family’s hometown of Ramallah, said there was also a notion that the Palestinian Authority or the Hamas-led government has become more dictatorial – and more authoritarian over time.

“For the average Palestinian in the West Bank or in Gaza (they say) ‘we have this (Israeli) occupation and then we have these Palestinian governments that are also authoritarian’. So a common phrase is we used to be occupied by one power, now we’re occupied by two”, Jamal continued.

From the end of September to October 6, the current Arab Barometer was conducted in Gaza, where 399 individuals were questioned, and the West Bank, where 790 people were polled. The outcomes of the study were published in the journal Foreign Affairs.

“About 60 percent said that they believed they could not express their opinions freely and openly at the eve of the attacks (and) about 72 percent said that they could not protest peacefully against the Hamas-led government”, Jamal noted.

“There was fear of retaliation or retribution from the government”, she added.

The Palestinian Authority, which is led by President Mahmud Abbas and governs Palestinian areas in the West Bank, had only 9 percent of positive replies in Jamal’s poll.

Despite the majority negative view of Hamas revealed by Jamal’s research, the paper cautions that perceptions may have altered since the Hamas attack on Israel.

“Israel cut off water, food, fuel, and electricity supplies to Gaza following the October 7 attacks, plunging the territory into a deep humanitarian crisis… the suffering the Palestinians have experienced has likely hardened their attitude”, the statement reads.

Prior to the attacks on Israel, more than half of those polled supported a two-state solution, with a Palestinian state coexisting with Israel.

The remaining candidates supported either a Palestinian-Israeli confederation or a one-state solution. However, prior to the attack of October 7, and the strong Israeli military reaction that followed, one in five favored armed resistance.

“Gazans were open to a peaceful reconciliation with Israel based on 1967 borders”, Jamal noted.

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