For the first time in five years, the United States and China started semi-official nuclear armament talks in March, with Beijing’s representatives telling their American counterparts that they would not resort to atomic threats over Taiwan.
After their American counterparts expressed fear that China may use, or threaten to use, nuclear weapons if defeated in a fight over Taiwan, Chinese diplomats gave reassurances. The Taipei government rejects Beijing’s claim that the democratically administered island is its territory.
“They told the US side that they were absolutely convinced that they are able to prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons”, said scholar David Santoro, the U.S. organizer of the Track Two talks.
Participants in Track Two talks are typically former officials and academics who can speak authoritatively about their government’s viewpoint, even if they were not personally involved in developing it. Track One refers to negotiations between governments.
At the two-day meetings, held in a Shanghai hotel conference room, Washington was represented by perhaps half a dozen delegates, including former officials and professors.
Beijing dispatched a delegation of intellectuals and analysts, including some former People’s Liberation Army leaders.
A State Department spokesperson said that Track Two talks could be beneficial.
“The department did not participate in the March meeting though it was aware of it”, the spokesperson continued.
The spokesperson went on to say, “Such discussions cannot replace formal negotiations that require participants to speak authoritatively on issues that are often highly compartmentalized within (Chinese) government circles”.
Requests for comment were not returned by members of the Chinese delegation or Beijing’s defence ministry.
The nuclear-armed nations held informal talks, with the US and China at odds over fundamental economic and geopolitical issues, and officials in Washington and Beijing accusing one other of ill faith.
The two countries briefly restarted Track One talks on nuclear armaments in November, but those talks have since stopped, with a key US official openly voicing dissatisfaction with China’s attitude.
The Pentagon, which forecasts that Beijing’s nuclear arsenal will grow by more than 20% between 2021 and 2023, stated in October that China would also consider nuclear use to restore deterrence if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan threatened CCP power.
China has never renounced the use of force to reclaim Taiwan, and it has increased military activities surrounding the island over the last four years.
The Track Two talks are part of a two-decade nuclear weapons and posture dialogue that stopped when the Trump administration cut financing in 2019.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, semi-official conversations resumed on larger security and energy issues, but only the Shanghai summit went into detail on nuclear weapons and posture.
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