Is French PM’s Call For Europe’s Greater Strategic Autonomy a Sign Of Fissures In The US Bloc?

French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron’s latest statement that Europe should not become a “vassal” and should not be involved in US-China tensions over Taiwan has flared anxiety among Western countries. He made these remarks in an interview aboard his plane during a 3-day visit to China. While analysts were still deciphering the significance of his remarks, President Macron’s further riled his Western partners by defending his viewpoint and emphasizing the difference between a vassal state and an ally.

Macron’s comments have drawn several interpretations. For some, this is a sign of chink in the US-led alliance while others view it as an indication that France might be slowly gravitating towards the Chinese pole. Others have postulated that this assertion is an expression of Europe’s desire to act as a third balancing factor in the bipolar world. Some see it as a sign of Macron’s ambition to punch above his weight in global affairs.

Welcoming Macron’s statement, China has alleged that some countries (read the US) of not wanting to see other nations exercising strategic immunity. The White House, on the other hand, has sought to downplay the matter by reminding of strong US-France ties although Senator Rubio has said that if Europe does not view Taiwan as its problem then the US could also take a similar stand on Ukraine. One could also infer from Macron’s view that his country holds the US equally responsible for rising tensions over Taiwan. It remains to be seen to what extent the other European countries will toe the US line on the issue.

President Macron is not the only European leader favoring a more nuanced approach towards Taiwan and China. However, many of them would be questioning the timing of Macron’s outburst considering the US is still the decisive factor in keeping the hopes for a favorable outcome in the Ukraine war alive. Europe was never so dependent on Washington-for security as well as energy- after the Cold War even as the Ukraine war has entered the second year and the US is headed towards another Presidential poll. To put it in Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s words, the US continues to remain the “absolute foundation” of Europe’s security. Few would disagree with PM Morawiecki as the outcome of the Ukraine war still hangs in balance.

France has been criticized for not contributing fully to the anti-Russia efforts in Ukraine. Nevertheless, several European nations have had their reservations over the US actions on the ground. German chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, wasn’t entirely at ease with the proposition of sending Leopard Tanks to the battlefield. Many European political quarters believe the US weapons industry is the real beneficiary of the ongoing conflict and all Europe has got is further economic downslide and deepening uncertainty over fulfilling its energy requirements. Stringent US sanctions have made the Russian supplies- that used to be much of Europe’s energy lifeline- hard to come by. The US trade war against Russia and China has made Europe’s post-Covid economic recovery even harder. The US presence in Europe was never so relevant in decades and almost all of the US bases in the region are active now.

Macron’s statements have brought the question of Europe’s strategic future to the fore. It can either continue to be under the US wings, especially for its security and energy needs. This means antagonizing China and losing out on the benefits of the Chinese partnership and ever-existing Russian threats to its borders. The other course is to follow Macron’s words and emerge as the third geo-strategic pole in global affairs. This would mean European nations will have to learn to solve their problems themselves, which is easier said than done.

While Europe is still a major economic power, its strategic impact is only a shadow of the past. Beijing is increasingly seeking to capitalize on this weakness by trying to ensure a gap between the EU and the US so that a broad trans-Atlantic US policy never comes to fruition. China can definitely help Europe’s economy to recover from the pandemic and the war.

President Macron tweeted on 6 April his hope that China can play a major role in ensuring world peace. He might have been pointing toward cooling temperatures in Taiwan and influencing Russia to end the Ukraine war, but can he and other European leaders hope for a more constructive approach in Beijing’s Europe policy?