Why India Should Worry About Possible Ramifications of Israel-Hamas War On Its Security?

On October 7, efforts to establish peace in the Middle East after decades of conflict and tension suffered a major setback. The Palestinian organization Hamas launched an attack on Israel, igniting a conflict that could potentially impact countries in the Arab region, including India.

Following Hamas’s attack on Israel, Prime Minister Modi condemned it as a terrorist act and expressed India’s support for Israel during this challenging time. This stance represents a notable shift in India’s policy. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also held discussions with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and reaffirmed India’s commitment to providing humanitarian assistance to Palestine. It is evident that India continues to stand with the Palestinian people but does not endorse or support Hamas.

India’s increasing proximity to Israel is a well-documented trend, driven by various factors. The growing cooperation between the two nations in economic, technological, scientific, and defence fields significantly contributes to this burgeoning relationship. Moreover, the deepening bonds between India and Israel, both having grappled with the challenges of Islamic terrorism, can be viewed as a practical outcome of their shared experiences.

When examining the Israel-Hamas conflict, it becomes evident that it goes beyond a typical dispute between two nation-states, rooted instead in issues of nationality and religion. This conflict has strong religious foundations. Jewish communities worldwide express their unwavering support for Israel, both in terms of ideology and material contributions. On the other hand, Muslims rally behind Palestine based on religious motivations, regardless of their diverse national affiliations, which has led Hamas to resort to armed conflict in pursuit of its objectives. While fluctuations in Muslim support for Palestine may be influenced by factors such as Shiite-Sunni dynamics and the national interests of various governments, there exists a deep-seated sympathy for Palestine among everyday Muslims.

India is home to the world’s second-largest Muslim population, and this diverse population has shown solidarity with the Palestinian cause, much like a large section of other Indian communities. The concept of a two-nation theory, whether applied to Hindus and Muslims or, in a parallel manner, to Jews and Muslims, has long been a subject of discussion. Within this framework, the British established the Jewish nation of Israel in Palestine, resettling Jews in the region. India’s political leadership initially opposed the two-nation theory but eventually accepted the partition, leading to the creation of Pakistan. This decision to reject the two-nation theory also paved the way for Hindus and Muslims to coexist peacefully in divided India.

The historical factors mentioned above play a significant role in understanding India’s perspective on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Over time, India has maintained various connections with both Israel and Palestine. To delve deeper, the acceptance of the two-nation theory, as seen in the formation of India and Pakistan, has influenced the current discourse surrounding the idea of a Hindu nation in India. It suggests a shift in modern India’s political outlook concerning the two-nation theory, even though this change is not reflected in the constitutional framework. This clash of ideas mirrors the complex dynamics witnessed in the Israel-Palestine conflict, albeit in a different context.

The recent series of blasts in Kerala have deeply shocked the country. At first, there was a moment when it appeared as if Hamas or its supporters might have been responsible for these attacks. The quick attribution of blame to Hamas serves as a warning sign that India’s territory could potentially be affected by the Israel-Hamas conflict in the near future. However, this concern is not baseless. The fact that a Hamas commander virtually rallied in Mallapuram shortly before the blasts is indeed troubling. It’s uncertain when Indian supporters of Palestine will take sides in response to the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas.

Indian Hindus and Muslims have a long history of living together. Despite occasional instances of communal violence and tension, their coexistence has generally been characterized by harmonious cohabitation. However, it cannot be denied that Islamophobia and Hinduphobia can be exploited at any time, especially by external forces.

The prolonged unrest in the northern region of Jammu and Kashmir was largely due to the activities of anti-Indian forces. Now, in the southern state of Kerala, similar forces are attempting to gain a foothold.

Various extremist Islamic organizations, including Hamas, can raise the bogey of threat to Muslims to potentially connect with Indian Muslims. Any terrorist attack in India can seriously impact Hindu-Muslim unity, and such attacks may be manipulated by political forces aiming to strengthen the sentiments of Islamophobia and Hinduphobia. This is an attempt to generate a reaction that would benefit divisive elements, who will seek to increase their activity by stoking the fears of Hindus.

Recent shifts in the global geopolitical landscape have heightened concerns about the potential repercussions of the Israel-Hamas conflict on India. China’s emergence as a superpower poses a significant challenge to India’s security interests. Notably, India’s rising influence has not gone unnoticed by China. In response to China’s expanding trade initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative, India has countered with its own India-Middle East-Europe Corridor initiative.

While China has cultivated alliances with countries such as Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, India has found itself aligning with the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia in this evolving scenario. Nevertheless, India has a history of maintaining a sense of neutrality. This has been evident in its stance during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

However, India’s recent expression of solidarity with Israel in protest against the brutal attacks by Hamas marks a departure from its traditional alignment with Palestine.

As the Israel-Hamas conflict unfolds, India appears to be leaning toward a position of neutrality or non-opposition to Israel. This neutrality has been evident through India’s decision to abstain from voting on the Jordan-proposed resolution regarding the Gaza conflict in the United Nations.

China, along with Russia and Iran, could leverage India’s stance to their advantage. In India, a divide has emerged regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, with one faction supporting Israel and another opposing it. This dynamic provides an opening for anti-India elements to redirect the focus of terrorists by amplifying anti-Israel sentiments. Such a situation could offer terrorist organizations an opportunity to exploit pro-Palestine sentiments within India, potentially posing a significant threat to the country’s peace and security.

In such scenarios, Indian security agencies must maintain vigilance and remain alert to potential threats. They are often able to detect such incidents in a timely manner. However, when the conditions for a terrorist attack become favourable, security agencies may encounter challenges, as they too have their limitations. It’s worth noting that terrorism typically requires some form of support from a nation or group. Consequently, the battle against terrorism cannot be won through the efforts of security agencies alone. In such circumstances, the most effective approach involves strengthening India’s position in the global geopolitical landscape and securing diplomatic assurances that terrorism will not be employed against the nation.

In a democratic country, elections hold paramount importance, and every political party aspires to emerge victorious. In this pursuit, policies may sometimes be compromised, creating a risk of heightened terrorist activities during elections. Terrorism, drug trafficking, and the illicit black money trade can only thrive when political interests prioritize their own gains over security. This troubling tendency to turn a blind eye during elections has unfortunately become prevalent in Indian politics.

The Israel-Hamas conflict, while not the sole driver of terrorism in India. The country’s border region has suffered the scourge in various other manifestations. Khalistani elements remain active in Punjab, and foreign influences exert their presence in the Northeast. The situation in Jammu and Kashmir is well-known. Wherever there’s a looming threat of terrorism, the drug trade often takes root, followed by the influx of weapons and the formation of suicide squads. Despite significant progress, incidents like Pulwama and Pathankot have occurred. In the Northeast, the scars of terrorism are evident in the form of ethnic conflicts. Given these complex challenges, it cannot be denied that India’s security faces potential threats, especially in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict.