Will Zelensky’s US visit help end the Ukraine Conflict?

The geopolitical concept of “superpower” represents the ambition and capacity of a nation to dictate its terms to the world. No country with this status likes any competitors and works to thwart potential challengers on their tracks. “Superpowers” use all their might to inculcate puppet regimes in all regions that matter to them and don’t think twice to abandon them once they have served their purpose. These pawn countries often pay for the interests of their masters by sacrificing peace and stability and lack the strategic freedom to make their own decisions. This is what we are witnessing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict which cannot be seen without the context of the US involvement.

“Ukraine holds its lines and will never surrender,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared during his address to the two chambers of the United States (US) Congress on Wednesday. His message that Ukraine was “alive and kicking” has resonated across the world. President Zelensky was on his first visit abroad after the war started in February and he landed in Washington DC to a rousing welcome from the Joe Biden administration. The US lawmakers stood and applauded him ten times during the address. His meeting with US President Joe Biden followed by a joint press conference courted global headlines.

The Biden administration has so far spent $ 45 billion to support Ukraine’s war efforts. It is no small amount but President Zelensky wants more. “For the Russian Army to completely pull out, more cannons and shells are needed,” he told the Congress.

President Zelensky’s earlier statement after meeting President Biden is equally significant. “For me, as the President, just peace is no compromise as to the sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity of my country, he told reporters as he declared the “good news” that he will be returning home with President Biden’s announcement of $ 2 billion defense package. According to him, the “strongest element” of this package is the Patriot missile defense system that will strengthen Ukrainian air defense significantly.

This bonhomie is bound to perturb Kremlin. Delivering a televised address to his military commanders this week, President Putin reiterated that “the war was the result of third countries.” He has been blaming the US for brainwashing Ukraine and has drawn a red line for NATO to stay out of its backyard. It remains to be seen if President Zelensky’s visit will further infuriate Putin. Several indications are suggesting Russia is preparing for a decisive battle. Some analysts are viewing Zelensky’s Washington visit as a response to these signals emanating from Kremlin.

Zelensky’s visit has also been compared with the UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s historic US visit 81 years ago. It came just after the infamous Pearl Harbor attack by Japanese forces on the US coast on 7 December 1941. It had killed over 2500 US soldiers forcing the US to enter the second World War. Churchill’s visit laid the foundation of a strategic alliance between the two countries that proved pivotal in defeating Germany and its allies.

Could Zelensky’s visit result in the US-led NATO’s direct participation in the war? Needless to say, this could push the world to the brink of the third World War. The Russian President has already clarified in no uncertain terms that he views the US help to Ukraine as akin to it becoming a party to the conflict. From Kyiv’s perspective though, the US help could not have come at a better time.

Meanwhile, Putin has held meetings with his military leaders this month. He has also reportedly consulted strategic experts to fine-tune the ‘special military operation’ for a decisive assault on Ukraine that could reverse the fortunes of the Russian forces that have suffered human, material and reputational losses for under performing on the battlefield.

This war is now personal for President Putin. Darya Dugina, the daughter of one of his close aides Alexander Dugin, was assassinated last August. Alexander is believed to have influenced Putin’s Ukraine policy and he was the real target of the attack. An infuriated Russian President had publicly vowed revenge. Personal vendetta aside, it has become imperative for Putin to reinstate his own people’s trust in Russian forces’ capabilities, especially after they were driven out of the strategic town of Kherson. Putin wants to see the same agility in his forces as they had shown initially when Kyiv was put under siege.

The Pentagon suspects Russia could be preparing for renewed action on the ground in New Year. At least 2 lakhs of its reserve soldiers are purportedly awaiting marching orders. Media reports suggest that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu and Russian Air Force Chief Valeriy Gerasimov are actively involved in preparing this plan. The US administration is struggling to find a suitable answer to Putin’s determination that insists on winning the war or threatening a global catastrophe. President Biden and his aides fear the action could spill out to other areas. The reports that Russia is also modernizing its nuclear arsenal are only adding to their apprehensions.

This is a different world than what it was at the time of the Pearl Harbour attack. No sane person in the US can imagine getting away with a unilateral catastrophic action as it showed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Hardly anybody doubts that Putin will not hesitate in responding in kind. Retaliation will also not be easy if President Putin decides to cross the nuclear ‘Lakshman Rekha’ first. The Republicans have openly opposed a “blank cheque” to Ukraine.

The world, particularly the US, needs to understand that the key to ending the conflict lies with Russia, and not Ukraine. Therefore, the US and its allies should start direct negotiations with President Putin. The western bloc needs to reflect on whether opening coffers to support Ukraine’s war campaign is doing Kyiv any good. A large proportion of the Ukrainian people are braving this winter without power. President Zelensky’s bravado notwithstanding, the fact that the war is ruining his country cannot be overlooked. His position will only become more untenable with time. For how long can the US keep sustaining the Ukrainian forces?

It is for all to see that the west has so far not seriously attempted to bring Russia to the negotiation table. India has tried its bit but to no avail. We need to ask if the world will enter the New Year with clouds of nuclear war hovering or with a new ray of hope for peace.