Hamas Is Just A Pawn In A Geostrategic Game That Transcends Middle-East
Once more, the land of Prophet Moses and Prophet Muhammad is marred by bloodshed. While the region is no stranger to violent conflict, the recent events have transcended the boundaries of brutality, showcasing the depths of oppression and the public assassination of humanity. Images emerging from Israel have shaken even the most stoic. Unexpectedly, a contingent of Hamas fighters from the Gaza Strip initiated an assault, leaving Israel reeling from the sudden onslaught. The atrocities perpetrated by Hamas on Israeli citizens of all ages have deeply scarred the human spirit.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas caught Israel off guard. Amid a deluge of over 5,000 rockets, militants infiltrated Israel using both air and sea pathways, deploying paragliders. This assault was timed with a Jewish festival, with Hamas orchestrating widespread carnage from rural areas to urban centers. Throughout this brutal campaign, Israel’s defence apparatus appeared overwhelmed.
Official statistics show that this battle has claimed the lives of more than 3,000 people to date. Both parties are aiming at one another. The magnitude of the strike suggests that a terrorist group like Hamas is unable to execute such a significant attack by itself. This attack most certainly has the support of a greater force. So, is Iran that significant power? Experts in diplomacy are refraining from reaching any conclusion so soon. Could China or Russia be behind the conflagration? It suits their interests to undermine the US influence in the region by backing the attack by Hamas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly displeased with the support Ukraine has garnered from the European Union, the United States, NATO, and other nations during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A nation as small as Ukraine has managed to resist a superpower like Russia for nearly two and a half years largely due to US backing. Despite Russia’s ongoing occupation of Ukrainian territories, it has incurred significant losses. This has prompted Russia to forge a coalition aimed at diminishing America’s superpower stature on the global stage, encompassing nations like Iran, China, and North Korea. There’s speculation that Russia, possibly through Iran, not only instigated Hamas but also equipped them with military resources, enabling a substantial attack on Israel.
Russia is suspected of backing the Hamas attack on Israel, especially after Israel’s recent announcement to provide military aid to Ukraine — a move that deeply angered Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and now deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, even issued threats to Israel over this.
Another strategic angle is that by escalating tensions with Israel, Russia aims to distract the U.S. and divert its focus from Ukraine, offering Russia a tactical reprieve. Notably, while Russia typically condemns terrorist activities, it issued a notably reserved response to Hamas’s aggression, avoiding any outright denunciation of their actions.
Further supporting these suspicions, Richard Kemp, a former British Army colonel, stated that President Putin aims to divert NATO’s attention from Ukraine by fuelling conflicts in regions such as Azerbaijan-Armenia, Serbia-Kosovo, Western Africa, and now, between Israel and Hamas.
The Ukraine crisis has taken a toll on both the United States and the European Union, with the former providing $110 billion in aid and the latter contributing around $76 billion. Some EU countries, like Hungary, have started scaling back their economic support for Ukraine. The eleven categories of sanctions placed on Russia have further strained the EU’s financial situation. As many nations bolster their defence budgets, the added financial demands of the Israel-Hamas conflict could exacerbate their challenges. Yet, neither the U.S. nor the EU can sidestep this issue.
Given the EU’s reliance on Russia for gas and crude oil, it has struggled to maintain a hardline stance on sanctions. This became evident when the EU raised concerns over India’s oil deal with Russia, prompting a robust response from Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. Given the context, diplomatic analysts speculate that the Hamas attack might be a collaborative strategy by Russia, China, and Iran to open a new battlefront and amplify economic stress on the U.S. and EU, thereby potentially weakening American influence in the Middle East.
Recently, ties between Israel and several Arab nations have shown marked improvement. In this backdrop, the Hamas attack appears aimed at undermining the Abraham Accords. These accords encompass bilateral agreements between Israel and countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, formalizing diplomatic and economic relations. The budding relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel is also notable. Collectively, these agreements underscore the significance of fostering peace and deepening mutual ties, not just in Central Asia but globally.
The Hamas attack has undeniably dealt a blow to the Palestinian cause. Their aspirations for land, freedom, and sovereignty seem even more distant following this heinous act. The assault on Israel by Hamas has left Islamic nations in shock. China and Russia appear to be manoeuvring to ensure that future alignments of Islamic countries don’t solely follow the dictates of the U.S., Europe, and Israel. Concurrently, there seems to be an ambition to rejuvenate Turkey’s caliphate system, both to diminish American influence in the Middle East and to consolidate their own power.
Amidst the chaos, Israel’s retaliatory strikes persist. However, does merely controlling Gaza quench Israel’s thirst for revenge, satiate its pride, and address its domestic political considerations? Regardless of the extent of Palestinian casualties, including those of Hamas, this may not be of paramount concern for Israel. Yet, such actions will undoubtedly elicit a response from the Arab world, potentially consolidating their unity outside the American sphere of influence. This seems to be the intent behind Hamas’s assault, with no discernible advantage for the Palestinian cause.
Hamas’s actions have, regrettably, transformed the Palestinian struggle into a seemingly aimless and perpetual conflict, with Palestinians bearing the majority of its consequences. The crucial questions arise: Does this fortify Israel? Does it diminish the challenges Israel faces? Clear answers are elusive. Those manipulating Hamas seem to be strategizing to isolate Israel from the Arab nations, a move that could further undermine American dominance in the Middle East.
Terrorism, in all its forms, must be unequivocally opposed. This shared stance binds India, the US, and Europe as allies. Yet, perspectives on terrorism vary globally. For instance, the Taliban’s collaboration with Pakistan to instigate terrorism against India exemplifies these differing views. The global community appears divided: some see Hamas’ actions as a reaction to Israeli oppression, while others perceive Israel’s response as its inherent right to defend itself. Amid these polarized opinions, the notion of justice seems to be overshadowed.
Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global stature of both superpowers has diminished. China has ascended as a new superpower. However, the dynamics aren’t set in stone. Where India aligns will significantly determine the superpower equilibrium. India has clearly delineated its stance: it supports Israel, implying that India also aligns with the United States and Europe. Legacy issues from the Nehru and Atal eras, such as the endorsement of a two-state solution are relegated to mere customary platitudes. Today, diplomacy often translates solely to advancing one’s own interests.
From the issues of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Aksai Chin to the matter of Tibet, which has intensified the China-India border tensions, these subjects will remain contentious. India’s primary interest lies in bilateral dialogues. This interest is bolstered by an autonomous foreign policy that empowers it to exert significant influence on the global stage. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s denunciation of all forms of terrorism, especially in the wake of the brutal attack by Hamas, is apt. The deliberate avoidance of explicitly naming Hamas has its diplomatic undertones. Likewise, the stance adopted during the Russia-Ukraine conflict conveys a distinct message.
India’s stance on terrorism has evolved into one of zero tolerance. In the shifting global landscape, India is resolute in carving out a significant role and no longer desires to be merely a pawn. Historically, even when India sided with Palestine, it did not receive backing from Islamic nations in its counter-terrorism efforts in Jammu and Kashmir. Today, despite aligning with Israel, India is better positioned to secure increased support from Islamic countries than ever before. The lack of global opposition to the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as the region’s subsequent bifurcation into union territories, underscores India’s contemporary strength.
India’s advocacy for Palestinian causes has remained steadfast. The testament to India’s balanced relations with both Israel and Palestine is echoed in the words of the Palestinian ambassador to India, Adnan Abu Alhaija, who remarked that India stands as a friend to both nations. He emphasized India’s crucial role in mediating the current crisis. Concurrently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promptly briefed Prime Minister Modi about the situation as hostilities commenced, a gesture indicative of India’s ascending global prominence. The current crisis presents India with an opportunity to define its position on the Israel-Palestine conflict in alignment with its strategic interests, as national self-interest is paramount in today’s geopolitical realm.
