PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressing confidence in winning the upcoming national election, has outlined an ambitious vision of nearly doubling the economy and exports over the course of this decade, as revealed by a government document obtained by Reuters. Economic growth has been a focal point of Modi’s election campaigns, with promises to elevate India’s economy to the third-largest globally, up from its current fifth position, if he secures a third consecutive term as predicted by polls.
The document, dated October, reveals Modi’s directive to officials to devise strategies to expand the economy to $6.69 trillion by 2030, up from the current $3.51 trillion, though specifics on achieving this target remain sparse. This objective serves as a framework for ongoing discussions among officials.
Despite Modi’s earlier pledge to achieve a $5 trillion economy by the current fiscal year, external factors such as disruptions due to COVID-19 have rendered this goal unattainable. Looking ahead, the Prime Minister aims to increase per capita income to $4,418 from the current $2,500 over the next six years, without delineating the necessary expenditures or reforms.
Independent economists, however, cast doubt on the feasibility of doubling the economy by the decade’s end, citing the need for sustained growth rates of 6-6.5% and inflation of 4.5% over seven years. India’s economy is anticipated to have grown by approximately 8% in the previous fiscal year, outpacing other major economies, primarily driven by government expenditure stimulating manufacturing and construction activities.
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Former finance ministry official Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the efficacy of growth projections, labelling them as mere mathematical exercises devoid of substantial reform or investment strategies. He stressed the necessity for tangible plans to navigate the complexities of the real economy.
Meanwhile, the opposition Congress has criticized Modi’s economic policies, arguing that recent growth has failed to address unemployment or rural distress, while exacerbating income inequality. The document outlines the government’s ambition to boost exports to $1.58 trillion by 2030, potentially doubling India’s share in global trade to over 4%.
