Dainik Bhaskar predicts a close contest, estimating the BJP could secure 20-25 seats. In contrast, the combined strength of Congress and National Conference (NC) is expected to range from 35-40 seats. The PDP is projected to win 4-7 seats, while Others are anticipated to capture 12-16 seats.
India Today-C Voter suggests the BJP may achieve between 27-32 seats, while the Congress-NC alliance could secure 40-48 seats. The PDP might gain 6-12 seats, and Others are expected to take 6-11 seats.
Peoples Pulse presents a different perspective, estimating the BJP will secure 23-27 seats. The Congress-NC alliance is projected to potentially reach 46-50 seats. The PDP is expected to capture 7-11 seats, while Others could win 4-6 seats.
NDTV Poll of Polls consolidates predictions, forecasting the BJP with 26 seats, the Congress-NC alliance at 43 seats, the PDP at 8 seats, and Others taking 13 seats.
The majority mark for 90 member Jammu and Kashmir Assambly is 46.
This election is particularly significant as it is the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which divided the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
Voter Turnout Analysis
The elections took place in three phases, recording an overall voter turnout of 63.45%. This turnout settled just below the 2014 mark of 65.8%. The third phase, held on October 1, saw a turnout of 68.72%, while the second phase recorded a lower turnout of 57.31%. The first phase managed a turnout of 61.38%. Notably, traditional boycott strongholds like Sopore and Baramulla reported the highest turnout for Assembly elections in the last 30 years.
Historical Context of Exit Poll Predictions
In the last Assembly election in 2014, exit polls predicted a hung Assembly. They indicated that no party would clear the 44-seat majority in the 87-member House. The CVoter exit poll projected the PDP at 32-38 seats, the BJP at 27-33, the National Conference at 8-14, and the Congress at 4-10 seats. When the results were announced, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the National Conference 15, and the Congress 12. This year’s election results will be crucial in shaping the future political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
Also Read: Exit Polls 2024: Congress On Track To Get Clear Majority In Haryana
