Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its estimate for India’s quick commerce market, projecting a total addressable market (TAM) of $57 billion by 2030. This marks a significant jump from its earlier forecast of $42 billion.
The brokerage cited stronger-than-expected user growth and deeper market penetration beyond major metros as key drivers.
The update comes as Blinkit, operated by Zomato’s parent company Eternal, continues to expand rapidly.
Eternal holds a leadership position in the segment and is expected to benefit significantly from the growing momentum.
Morgan Stanley also revised its gross order value (GOV) forecasts for the quick commerce segment upward by 9–11% for FY26–28.
While adjusted EBITDA losses may peak in Q4 FY25, the report suggested that profitability remains achievable in the medium term.
The expanded TAM reflects both rising demand and the structural evolution of the market. This includes growth in the number of cities served and an increase in monthly transacting users (MTUs).
The report noted that Eternal’s quick commerce profile could mirror its food delivery business in future profitability.
Despite rapid growth, industry experts remain cautious.
The Blume Ventures Indus Valley 2025 report warns of possible challenges such as slowing MTU growth and rising competition from e-commerce firms as the market scales.
India’s food delivery market is also showing early signs of revival. Though Morgan Stanley has kept its GOV estimates unchanged, it increased margin expectations due to better monetisation and cost efficiency.
With just 14% market penetration, lower than the US and China, India’s food delivery sector still has ample room for growth.
Eternal’s performance, marked by steady market share gains, reflects sound execution.
Motilal Oswal recently estimated Blinkit’s market share at 46%, followed by Zepto at 29% and Swiggy Instamart at 25%.
However, challenges in expanding beyond major cities remain for all players.
Morgan Stanley believes Eternal’s dual leadership in both quick commerce and food delivery uniquely positions it to capitalise on a growing profit pool.
A strong balance sheet and focus on unit economics provide a competitive edge.
Key drivers for sector re-rating include sustained GOV growth in the quick commerce market, improved food delivery margins, and a stabilising competitive landscape.
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