The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has forecasted a 6.8% growth rate for the Indian economy in 2024, followed by a 6.3% expansion in 2025. This steady growth is driven by strong public and private investment, robust consumption, and increasing exports of services.
According to the UNCTAD report, India’s rising exports, especially in services, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, contribute significantly to this growth. However, India will continue to face a current account deficit due to high fossil energy import costs and relatively weak external demand.
Inflation Decline May Lead to Easing by RBI
The report also predicts that India’s inflation rate will decrease to 4% by the end of 2024, creating potential for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to implement monetary easing. Lower inflation could prompt the RBI to reduce its policy rate, further supporting economic growth.
The UNCTAD report highlights India’s dual strategy of expanding both fossil and non-fossil fuel energy sources to meet its energy needs as the world’s most populous country and third-largest energy consumer.
IMF Affirms India as World’s Fastest-Growing Economy
The UNCTAD’s projections align closely with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently emphasized India’s position as the fastest-growing economy globally. The IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific notes that, despite a regional slowdown in 2024 and 2025 due to post-pandemic factors, India’s investment and private consumption keep growth resilient.
In its World Economic Outlook from October, the IMF maintained India’s GDP growth forecast at 7% for FY25 and 6.5% for FY26.
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