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Veteran banker Keki Mistry, a key figure on the boards of major financial institutions including HDFC Bank, has offered a reassuring outlook amid global concerns surrounding trade tariffs and recession fears.
Speaking on the sidelines of recent economic developments, Mistry underscored India’s resilience, highlighting the country’s robust domestic economy and downplaying the direct impact of global trade headwinds.
Domestic Strength Over Export Dependency
According to Mistry, while many global investors were worried about the potential imposition of tariffs by the US and the spectre of a global slowdown, India’s exposure remains limited.
“India is not yet a large exporter,” he said, adding that ‘the India story is primarily a domestic economy story’.
With exports forming just 21% of India’s GDP and only 17% of that destined for the US, he estimated the total direct impact on India’s GDP to be a modest 40- 50 basis points (bps).
Offsetting Factors At Play
Mistry highlighted that other economic positives are likely to offset any marginal negative impact from tariffs.
Falling oil prices, which reduce import costs, and the Reserve Bank of India’s liquidity infusion, he said, would contribute positively to the GDP by about 10 bps each.
“The net impact to the GDP will not be more than 25 to 30 basis points,” he concluded, dismissing alarmist narratives around the issue.
Market Volatility As Opportunity
Acknowledging recent market swings, Mistry described the response as an overreaction.
“Markets always overreact in times of uncertainty,” he said, urging investors to take a long-term view.
“Personally, if I was looking at investing, I would think this is a good time to invest for the long term,” he added, expressing confidence in India’s structural growth trajectory.
A Broader Perspective
Mistry also cautioned against viewing India in isolation.
“We need to look at ourselves not in isolation but on a relative basis,” he said, implying that compared to global peers, India remains an attractive destination.
He emphasized the importance of job creation as a key growth driver, noting that continued employment generation for youth graduating from colleges would ensure sustained economic expansion.
With global markets on edge, Mistry’s perspective brings a sense of balance.
His assessment underscores India’s relative insulation from global tariff disputes and highlights the underlying fundamentals that continue to drive growth.
As policymakers manage volatility through supportive measures, his message is clear: India’s economic story remains one of resilience, opportunity, and long-term promise.
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