Economic Survey Forecasts India’s GDP Growth At 6.8-7.2% For FY27

The Economic Survey projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.8 to 7.2 per cent for the financial year 2026-27, reflecting steady expansion despite global economic uncertainty.

The survey highlights India’s resilience, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and sustained policy reforms.

It notes that global challenges pose external risks rather than immediate macroeconomic stress for India.

The domestic economy remains stable, with inflation easing to historically low levels.

However, the survey expects some upward pressure on prices in the coming period and urges careful interpretation of inflation trends, especially with the upcoming rebasing of the Consumer Price Index.

The survey points out that balance sheets across households, corporates, and banks have strengthened.

Public capital expenditure continues to drive economic activity. Consumption demand remains robust, while private investment intentions show gradual improvement.

Together, these factors help shield the economy from external shocks and sustain growth momentum.

The survey warns that slower growth in major trading partners, tariff-related trade disruptions, and volatile capital flows could periodically affect exports and investor confidence.

At the same time, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are likely to conclude during the year, which could ease external uncertainty.

While these risks remain manageable, the survey stresses the importance of maintaining adequate buffers and strong policy credibility.

Importantly, the survey observes that the cumulative impact of structural reforms over recent years has raised India’s medium-term growth potential closer to 7 per cent.

With domestic demand playing a leading role and macroeconomic stability firmly anchored, the overall risk to growth remains broadly balanced.

On the global front, the survey presents a cautious outlook. It expects world economic growth to remain subdued over the medium term, with downside risks dominating.

Commodity prices are likely to stay broadly stable as global demand moderates.

Global inflation has trended downward, prompting expectations of more accommodative monetary policies to support growth.

However, risks persist. If the artificial intelligence boom fails to deliver expected productivity gains, asset valuations could correct sharply, triggering financial spillovers.

Prolonged trade conflicts could further dampen global investment and weaken growth prospects.

Overall, the survey concludes that while global conditions remain fragile, stability continues for now.

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