Opposition unity is the key for a strong democracy
(Rajneesh Kapoor)
Recent elections have shown mixed results. The predictions of political experts, who were predicting the results of Delhi, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, proved correct to a large extent. The way the opposition parties have performed better in these elections than before, is now clearly displays that the opposition parties should take the assembly elections to be held in nine states in 2023 pretty seriously before the arrival of 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A scattered opposition is not good for any democracy. Perhaps that is why leaders of all regional parties are holding meetings with each other and planning ahead.
Bharatiya Janata Party has set a new record of victory in Gujarat. There the hard work of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah paid off. But after the debacle in Himachal and Delhi, the BJP leadership will have to prepare for the upcoming elections. The opposition parties will also have to ponder over the fact that if they do not unite, they will be confined to their respective states only. On the other hand, it would not be right to ignore the Kejriwal factor.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party received a verdict with majority in Delhi MCD elections. BJP supporters are calling it ‘anti-incumbency’ of 15 years. On the other hand, Kejriwal is boasting that he got votes against his work. Just as Kejriwal formed his government in Punjab by touting the ‘Delhi Model’, in the same way he established his hold in Delhi’s MCD. But his ‘broom’ could not work in Himachal and Gujarat. According to political pundits, the reason behind this is only the lack of unity of the opposition.
For example, if we look closely at the results of Gujarat, then in many seats, adding the votes of the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress together it comes higher than the number of votes received by the BJP. This means that due to lack of opposition unity, the votes which were not available to BJP were divided. This directly benefited the BJP and it was able to achieve a historic victory. Perhaps that is why Kejriwal is being called the vote-cutter of the opposition for the BJP. But the way Kejriwal did not exert as much power in the Himachal elections as in Gujarat and Delhi, and the Congress got the benefit of it, it seems that the Aam Aadmi Party has only done the work of cutting votes.
In Himachal elections, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia felt the absence of Himachal in-charge Satyendar Jain and suddenly withdrew from the election campaign. Those who call Kejriwal the ‘B team’ of BJP are wondering that if this is true then why was Satyendar Jain not released from jail before Himachal elections? Why were the videos of Satyendar Jain in jail being made viral everyday by the BJP?
If the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party are one, was it a wrong strategy by the BJP government to keep Satyendar Jain in Tihar for so many days?
Usually, whenever bye-elections are held in any state, be it Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha, the ruling party emerges victorious there. But in the 2017 Lok Sabha by-election, the seat of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya could not go in favor of the ruling BJP.
The reason for this was the agreement between SP and BSP. Similarly, sympathy was not the reason for Dimple Yadav’s historic victory in the Mainpuri by-election after the death of Mulayam Singh. Considering the popularity of a tall leader like Netaji, BJP should not have fielded any candidate in this election like other parties. But by fielding its candidate, the BJP has done the work of hitting itself in the foot.
It was also a wrong decision of Rahul Gandhi not to take out ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ in Gujarat. But if they thought they wanted to destroy the Modi-Shah duo in Gujarat, they should have made a pact with Kejriwal on a few seats. His not doing so was in the advantage of the BJP. Whatever it is, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge is already in election mode. He has started calling meetings of office bearers to decide the strategy for the upcoming assembly elections. Perhaps he believes that Himachal’s victory can be replicated in other states.
In all the TV discussions after the elections, political analysts are giving special emphasis on the fact that the opposition parties should have united among themselves and entered the electoral fray. All the regional parties which are in a strong position in their respective states should campaign from now itself among the public before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Along with this, they should also cooperate with those parties where other parties are strong. If the opposition parties do not cut off each other’s votes, then it will be difficult for the BJP or any other big party to break through their unity.
This can happen only when all the opposition parties come together to reach a consensus and fight the elections. In a successful democracy, it is necessary for the ruling party and the opposition to be strong. The opposition will be strong only when it is united.
(The author is Managing Editor, Kalachakra News Bureau, Delhi.)
