The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monthly bulletin has expressed optimism about India’s economic prospects, citing a revival in rural consumption driven by growing incomes and a likely increase in private sector investment.
The bulletin notes that aggregate demand conditions are gathering momentum after a slow start in the first quarter of 2024-25, with rural consumption spending driving volume growth in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). Utility penetration and rising rural savings are also contributing to the upturn.
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The report highlights that FMCG companies are seeing signs of revival, with price stability and expectations of a better monsoon and higher budgetary allocations for the rural economy pushing up volume growth.
In agriculture, cumulative precipitation in the southwest monsoon season has achieved normalcy, improving water storage and soil moisture. Kharif sowing acreage has also been higher year-on-year in almost all crops barring cotton.
In the manufacturing sector, sales growth was resilient in certain industries like electrical machinery and automobiles, but muted in others like iron and steel and textiles. Profit margins remained stable in both manufacturing and services sectors.
The bulletin also notes that labor quality has grown and sustained across all sectors, with a shift towards higher educated categories with more remunerative jobs.
The positive outlook for India comes despite global economic prospects being clouded by geopolitical tensions, recession fears, and financial market volatility.
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