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Gold could rise to $5,000-$5,600 per ounce, while silver may reach $95-$120 per ounce by the end of 2026 under a bull-case scenario, according to a new Monarch PMS report. The firm assigns a 25 per cent probability to this outcome.
The scenario assumes weakness in the labour market prompts the US Federal Reserve to ease repo rates. It expects real yields to decline.
Institutional investors would need to resume reallocating funds towards precious metals. Silver would require renewed physical supply tightness for the bullish scenario to materialise.
The report gives the base case a 55 per cent probability.
Under this scenario, gold could trade at $4,300-$4,700 per ounce, while silver may reach $70-$85 per ounce by year-end 2026.
The outlook assumes the Fed keeps rates unchanged through September. It further expects energy prices to normalise, real yields to stabilise and central banks to continue purchasing around 250 tonnes of gold each quarter.
The bear case carries a 20 per cent probability. Gold could fall to $3,400-$3,900 per ounce, while silver may decline to $45-$55 if the Fed raises rates in September, oil prices weaken further, and disinflation develops into softer demand.
“The principal headwind is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41 per cent and remains a genuine competing return to a zero-coupon asset such as gold,” the report said.
Silver’s supply-demand fundamentals remain favourable. The market faces its sixth straight annual deficit, while 762 million ounces have left above-ground stocks since 2021. Mine supply has remained broadly unchanged for a decade.
The firm said physical shortages could magnify silver’s gains if demand strengthens. COMEX paper claims currently stand at roughly 5.6 times registered physical inventory.
“The gold-silver ratio has normalised, rising from 46x at January’s peak to around 69-fold today, close to its 21st-century average,” the report said, adding that silver has surrendered much of its earlier outperformance and now appears relatively cheaper than gold.
Also Read: Gold Price Today: Why Did Gold Fall Nearly 2% This Week?
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