Ukraine War Has Become Uncle Sam’s Migraine

War is often perceived as a solution to complex problems, but it invariably introduces new challenges, as the US is experiencing in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Uncle Sam finds itself entangled in a dispute far from its borders. President Joe Biden is in a tight spot; he cannot send troops directly, nor can he ignore the conflict. His administration has generously provided arms to Ukrainian forces in an effort to sustain its influence and counteract China, a Russian ally. However, even 16 months after invading Ukraine, President Putin’s military campaign shows no signs of slowing. As days go by, the prospects of a Russian defeat seem increasingly remote.

The US has supplied Abrams tanks to bolster the Ukrainian army. While this is expected to strengthen Ukraine’s defense, it’s not anticipated to significantly shift the war’s trajectory. Kiev has not disclosed how many of the promised 31 state-of-the-art tanks have arrived. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed the delivery of the initial batch, indicating that the full order hasn’t been shipped yet. While some in the West have criticized the slow delivery pace, analysts are also debating the tanks’ potential impact on the war’s outcome. This is especially pertinent given that the presence of German Leopard-II and British-made Challenger-II tanks hasn’t notably affected the conflict’s balance.

Leading US scientists and military analysts increasingly believe that achieving air superiority is essential to defeat Russia. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian positions using advanced drones and cruise missiles. In contrast, the Ukrainian army primarily uses Soviet-era weapons. Expecting the level of valour from the Ukrainian forces that the West anticipates might be unrealistic given the circumstances. Numerous analysts suggest that the White House might be intentionally encouraging Kiev to continue a seemingly futile effort, resulting in significant human casualties. Historically, the US’s war strategy has leaned heavily on air supremacy. This was evident in its operations in the Arab world, where US warplanes decimated enemy forces before ground troops were deployed.

Last week, during his visit to Washington, D.C., Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought further assistance from the United States, including long-range missiles, to address ground challenges. In response, the Pentagon announced a $325 million aid package comprising additional artillery, ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and modern air defence systems. American media reports suggest that President Joe Biden has also committed to providing Ukraine with the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), though this hasn’t been officially confirmed. The ATACMS can be launched from mobile platforms and has a range between 100 to 190 miles, depending on the model. Some versions can carry cluster munitions, which are small bombs that disperse over a wide area upon detonation. It’s believed that these weapons could allow Ukraine to target supply lines, airports, and rail networks in Russian-controlled regions without engaging in direct ground combat.

The United States recently agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. However, the benefits of this decision may not be immediately realized. Training Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16s will take several months. In fact, the initial step of providing English language training to these pilots hasn’t even begun. American officials have consistently emphasized that the introduction of F-16s, ATACMS, or M1 Abrams tanks will not yield instant results, given the unpredictability of the precise impact of these weapons.

The ongoing conflict is having ripple effects on domestic politics in the United States. Biden’s approval ratings are on a downward trajectory, attributed in part to the situation in Ukraine. Many believe this decline has motivated Biden to invest heavily in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is putting additional strain on the US budget for fiscal year 2024.

Two pre-election polls about next year’s presidential race were released last Sunday, and neither portrays Biden in a favorable light. The ABC News/Washington Post survey highlighted a significant drop in trust for Biden. Notably, the poll indicates a rising confidence in Donald Trump. Trump secured 52 points to Biden’s 42 in this poll. No American president has won an election by a margin of ten percent since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Furthermore, 56 percent of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance, with the Ukraine conflict being a contributing factor. A significant number believe their personal situations have worsened under Biden’s administration. Notably, three-quarters of respondents felt Biden might be too old to serve another term as president, yet the same group seemed to dismiss age concerns regarding Trump.

The NBC survey also indicates that the American public remains disillusioned with the current state of affairs. However, there’s a silver lining for Biden in this poll: despite his notably low approval rating, he’s running head-to-head with Trump in the presidential race, with both garnering 46 percent. This suggests that many individuals might back Biden against Trump even if they’re critical of him in other aspects. Biden might now recognize that the conflict, once perceived as a solution to Ukraine’s issues, has morphed into one of his most significant challenges.