The Gujarat verdict has prepared the ground for the 2024 Lok Sabha battle

‘Revelations’ continue to flow from poll pundits analyzing the Gujarat Assembly election results. Most of them seem baffled at the BJP’s historic performance. It is as if they never expected this outcome. Hardly anyone doubted BJP’s victory before the polls. But you cannot blame analysts. It is the enormity of the pro-incumbency vote that has confounded most of them. What Gujarat has witnessed is more of a victory for PM Narendra Modi than even his party. It is yet another affirmation of the place that he has now cemented as the paragon of trust in millions of Indian households.

Several factors have sealed this victory and its scale, forcing the Prime Minister’s detractors to eat humble pie. They were teasing him for having to carry out a 50-kilometre roadshow in Ahmadabad to salvage his party’s chances; as if the public mind was so fickle that it could be swayed by just four hours of road outing or a week of rallies. You bet if it was this easy to win Indian elections.

PM Modi had started preparing for this victory in 2017 when Gujarat voters had retained the BJP in power with 99 seats. This verdict was the foundation of the 2022 landslide and the Prime Minister has put in relentless efforts to make it happen. He began by targeting traditional Congress vote bank and then wooed tribal mass leaders to his party’s fold.

It was his brain to give Saurashtra region its due share in the Union Cabinet and overhaul almost the entire state council of ministers to counter anti-incumbency. Narendra Modi is equally capable of taking bold decisions in his party’s interests as we have seen him doing while governing the nation. Only he could have surprised all by removing both the incumbent Chief Minister and his deputy and appointing Bhupendra Patel, a Patidar, for the top job. Modi’s influence helped in bringing Hardik Patel and the OBC leader Alpesh Thakor under the party’s umbrella and thus fine-tuning its local and caste equations. As many as 40 sitting MLAs lost their ticket this time around.

But there is another factor besides these strategic changes that ensured BJP’s thumping victory- Gujarati ‘Asmita’ or pride. A common Gujarati was not willing to see the son of their own soil struggle on his home turf when even his electoral ‘karmabhoomi’ Uttar Pradesh has showered so much love on him. The Prime Minister was able to touch this emotional nerve and reminded people of the failures of the past Congress governments.

PM Modi also had an emphatic record on Gujarat’s development plank. Two big-ticket investment projects had chosen the state over Maharashtra just on the heels of these polls.

The Prime Minister wasn’t shy of hard labor, as is always the case. He visited the nook and corner of the state and gave his all to a successful campaign. His efforts turned the entire election into a referendum on him. To borrow from the PM’s own words, the result was a new record in breaking records. The BJP improved its tally to 156 in an Assembly of 182 legislators. A vote share of more than 50 per cent paved the party’s way to a seventh straight stint at power. This unprecedented feat is another reminder that Narendra Modi is indeed now synonymous with Gujarat.

More significantly, the result has come at a time when the pile of issues in Gujarat is no smaller than Delhi’s landfills. The Morbi bridge tragedy was just another addition to the burning questions of inflation, unemployment, corruption, poor health facilities and low development indices on many fronts. But the same people who can shake even the mightiest of the crown can also hand it as a gift to a leader they love. In other words, Gujarat’s love for PM Modi trumped all other issues.

In contrast, BJP failed to change the ‘rivaz’, the political tradition of Himachal Pradesh to change governments in every Assembly election. Not that BJP was complacent, or the Prime Minister overlooked the Himalayan state; even the opposition parties were the same as Gujarat. Anti-incumbency stemming from a lackluster performance of the outgoing government proved the party’s nemesis. The public’s anger can be gauged from the fact only two of Jairam Thakur government’s ministers could save their seats, the Chief Minister included.

The Congress party was short of star campaigners in Himachal as it was in Gujarat. There wasn’t much sound and fury in the party’s campaign. But local issues worked in its favor. The party’s state leadership was successful in capitalizing on the old pension demand and anger over the army’s Agniveer recruitment scheme in some districts. Discontent among apple farmers also favored its prospects. The leadership was able to marshal its local resources well under Priyanka Gandhi’s command. Other main central leaders remained in the background and the party kept a safe distance from emotive issues. It also consciously refrained from firing salvos at the Prime Minister. Unlike Gujarat, the Congress succeeded in preventing the battle from becoming PM Modi vs the rest in Himachal. It would like to keep this lesson in mind in the upcoming elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Any commentary on the Congress party’s Gujarat strategy could be misleading as it had, in any case, no weapon up its sleeves that could counter the Modi wave.

Discussing Aam Aadmi Party’s performance would be more relevant in Gujarat’s context. It has not only managed a foothold in PM Modi’s home state but also managed enough votes to formally gain the status of a national party. Its presence brought the Congress’ vote share below 30 per cent for the first time in history. Many analysts believe it is now seriously threatening to dislodge the Congress as the chief challenger to the Modi magic in 2024. This seems more likely at a time when other non-Congress opposition parties like the TMC, NCP, BSP and the Communists are either struggling to hold their bastions or for outright survival. A recent survey by the global market research firm YouGov and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research (CPR) in over 200 cities and towns indicates the same fact.

This doesn’t mean Kejariwal’s charisma is going to work in every state from now onward, but it has certainly emerged as a significant factor on the national scene. The AAP has already made the National Capital Congress free by almost wiping it out from the MCD. The party will need to enhance its credibility to pose a serious challenge to the BJP at the center though. It is still nowhere in the scene in many states, as we saw in Himachal Pradesh. In many other states like Goa and Uttarakhand, it is merely seen as a spoilsport. Sometimes outrageous claims by the party supremo Arvind Kejariwal don’t help either.

To put it succinctly, PM Modi’s appeal among the masses remains Teflon-coated. He still seems to be miles ahead of his nearest competitor in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. His charisma and popularity are the BJP’s biggest assets at the moment. But an over-dependence on them is not good for the party either. You take Modi out of the equation and BJP seems vulnerable. This reliance is also symptomatic of the lack of strong local leadership. Himachal is a glaring example that has shown that even the Modi factor has its limitations. But is the opposition ready to make good on this limitation? Its future in the 2024 general elections will depend on the answer to this question.