May 15, 1948 marked the birth of Israel, triggering a foundation of conflict in the Middle East that has continued to simmer. The distrust between Palestinians, Arabs, and Israelis runs so deep that even after 75 years, resolution remains elusive, evident in more than seven wars between Israel, Palestine, and Arab nations. Surrounded by Arab countries, Israel has fiercely fought to maintain its existence. Over time, Israel has become so strong that it can stand alone against any adversary. In 1967, within just six days, Israel defeated three powerful neighboring Arab nations that had attacked it.
However, since October 7, 2023, the conflict has been ongoing with Hamas launching an attack on Israel. The prolonged duration is attributed to the influence of external powers manipulating the conflict for their own interests. Hamas, supported by countries like Iran, Syria, and Turkey, faces Israel, which is openly supported by the United States and other Western nations.
The sudden attack by Hamas has brought the Middle East crisis to global attention. Despite Israel’s strength and capabilities, the question arises: why did Hamas choose to jeopardize the safety of its people and challenge Israel, knowing the consequences? The answer lies in the powers behind the scenes manipulating the conflict. As expected, Israel responded with such force that Gaza has been reduced to ruins.
Half of Gaza is now under Israeli control, as announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the achievements, questions linger about whether the occupation of half of Gaza will be considered a victory for Israel. After nearly a month of war, northern Gaza is completely under Israeli control, causing a mass exodus from north to south. The conflict persists despite the U.S. appeal for a three-day ceasefire, causing Turkey to recall its ambassador from Israel and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan refusing to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Although a daily four-hour humanitarian ceasefire has been initiated, Israel remains unprepared for a longer truce until the release of its captives. The situation raises the question of what comes next. Even if northern Gaza is won, how will Israel proceed if Hamas activities do not cease? The issue of the release of captives becomes crucial, allowing Israel to present it as a success in its military action. The confirmation of the destruction of Hamas’ network and the release of captives are currently the most critical aspects for Israel.
The conflict between Hamas and Israel is not just a terrorist organization; it represents the militarization of a mindset that deems Israeli occupation on Palestinian land illegal. This mentality can only subside when both Palestine and Israel accept each other’s principles, recognizing each other’s sovereignty without displacing the entire Palestinian population or expelling Jews from Israel. War isn’t the solution; it exacerbates the situation. The weakening of Hamas doesn’t necessarily ease Israel’s challenges, as other forces are ready to confront Israel over Palestinian rights. The situation involves global powers like Turkey, Iran, and Syria, which pose threats to Israel. The U.S. military presence in the Gulf adds tension, but the U.S. considers it essential for Israel’s security.
Since the October 7 attack on Gaza, Israel has spent $51 billion, equivalent to 10% of its GDP. Losses in revenue amount to $10-15 billion, excluding the additional $14.3 billion aid announced by the U.S. due to the conflict. If the conflict persists, this aid might diminish.
The ambition of capturing Gaza could provoke groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Hezbollah, a powerful terrorist organization based in Lebanon, possesses over a million rockets, including anti-ship missiles, challenging even U.S. naval power in the Gulf. If Hezbollah receives continued support from Iran, it could pose a severe threat to Israel, potentially dragging Lebanon into ruin. Iran’s goal is to establish leadership in the Arab world, causing friction with the U.S., and it supports terrorist organizations. The U.S. sees Israel’s attacks as a “self-inflicted wound,” complicating the situation.
The Middle East Economic Corridor, led by India in the G-20, aims to boost trade between India, Western Asia, and Europe. This initiative counters China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Israel-Palestine conflict, like the Russia-Ukraine war, has implications for the balance between China and the West. With the upcoming Russian presidential elections in March 2024, Putin’s popularity has waned due to the Ukraine conflict and health concerns. If the Israel-Palestine conflict escalates, it could divert attention, benefiting Russia. The internal political dynamics in the U.S. and Israel also influence leaders to create a narrative, potentially using the conflict for political gains.
In international politics, the U.S. is cautious not to lose its role as a global power. The Israel-Palestine conflict, being religiously charged, often forces the U.S. to take a stance favoring Palestinian rights. The internal politics in the U.S. and Israel differ, making leaders keen on creating a narrative for political gains. With the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaching, Biden’s popularity decline and various issues like migration policies contribute to dissatisfaction among Americans. The conflict in Israel could impact Biden’s prospects negatively.
The Abraham Accords formed a new alliance in the Middle East, including Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. However, this alignment hasn’t been well-received globally, as it undermines the unity of Islamic nations. The Gaza attacks are viewed as an opportunity by some member countries to weaken the accord. The conflict weakens the Abraham Accords, fostering an atmosphere of mutual distrust among member countries, posing a significant threat to global peace.
