China’s Growing Unease: Xi Jinping’s Absence From Delhi G-20 Summit Amid India’s Global Rise

New Delhi has emerged as the world’s diplomatic epicenter with global leaders converging for the annual G-20 summit from September 9-10. Hosting this event has bolstered India’s stature as a safe and prosperous hub for pivotal affairs aligning with the Modi government’s mantra, “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” It is under this vision that G-20 leaders, who represent 85% of the world’s GDP, over 75% of global trade, and two-thirds of the global population, gather to foster shared goals during the summit. Such a congregation of leadership elevates India’s profile to a stature seldom seen even among some of the world’s foremost powers.

However, India’s rising prominence on the global stage seems not to have resonated well with China. This sentiment may be one of the reasons President Xi Jinping chose to forgo the summit, sending Premier Li Qiang in his stead. While it’s not unusual for world leaders to bypass international meetings, President Xi Jinping’s absence is particularly noteworthy. He has attended every G-20 summit since he began his tenure in March 2013. His commitment was evident even during the 2021 Italy summit, which he joined virtually due to the Covid pandemic.

Another significant absence from the Delhi summit is Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet, his reasons differ. The enduring bond between India and Russia remains strong, and President Putin had personally informed Prime Minister Narendra Modi of his inability to attend the summit during a phone call. During that conversation, he also lauded India for the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission. In contrast, China neither extended this basic diplomatic gesture nor provided any official explanation for President Xi Jinping’s decision to abstain from visiting Delhi.

In the broader context, by hosting one of the most distinguished international events during a tumultuous period, India has unequivocally signaled its readiness to think ambitiously and fulfill its commitments to global leadership. The world has long anticipated India’s ascent to this role, and now the evidence is unmistakable. The country’s burgeoning self-assurance on the global stage poses a significant challenge to China, which seeks to dictate global dynamics on its own terms.

The relations between the two Asian powerhouses have been less than ideal in recent years, as highlighted by tensions along their shared border. While both nations vie for leadership in the Global South, their leaders also jostle for worldwide influence. PM Modi appears to have demonstrated a broader global vision in this regard. He has visited numerous world capitals and welcomed a plethora of leaders domestically. In contrast, President Jinping has been increasingly preoccupied with domestic challenges, especially since the onset of the Covid pandemic, which has curtailed his international engagement. Despite Beijing’s attempts to limit India’s influence to South Asia, India has continuously deepened its ties with Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, and the US, presenting a significant challenge to China’s global standing.

China’s economy is undeniably navigating turbulent waters. Still reeling from the pandemic’s shock, the challenges it faces have global implications, causing concern worldwide. Many Chinese families have had to cut back on spending, manufacturing in factories is slowing, and investment is dwindling. Chinese companies are increasingly  considering relocation abroad. The country’s exports witnessed an 8.8% decline year-on-year in August, while imports decreased by 7.3%. Unemployment is on the rise, and numerous major developers are filing for bankruptcy. This poses a threat to the once-coveted Chinese real estate sector, which accounts for about 25% of the country’s entire economy.

China’s current economic challenges threaten to destabilize its four-decade-long successful development model, which has propelled it to global superpower status. Against this backdrop, India’s ascending growth trajectory—poised to position it as the world’s third largest economy—is likely giving China cause for concern. Whether it’s assisting African nations in repaying their Chinese debts, opposing the Belt and Road Initiative, or fortifying border village infrastructure through the “Vibrant Village Program” along the LAC, the emerging India is consistently countering China’s expansionist pursuits. Given these dynamics, it’s evident that China is increasingly uneasy about its position in the evolving global hierarchy.

Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 summit underscores the swiftly evolving global order and China’s ongoing struggle to adjust. While China has attempted to hinder the G20’s year-long proceedings and marginalize India, its efforts have proven unsuccessful. Conversely, under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, India’s stature as a pivotal force in the global arena has been fortified. However, it’s crucial to recognize that we haven’t seen the last of China’s maneuvering. Characteristically, it may continue to present challenges in the future. Yet, the emerging India is signaling not just its capability to surmount these challenges, but also its ambition.