One bleeding Ukrainian year enters into another now
The global community is grappling to find ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war, even as it enters its second year with a stalemate that shows no signs of breaking. There is no sign of a thaw in peace efforts, and none of the combatant parties is ready to see each other eye to eye.
Three-fourths of the members of the United Nations has endorsed the resolution urging Russia to fall back, but the Kremlin remains unimpressed. If anything, the total number of Russian soldiers along the Ukraine border has more than doubled to over 500,000 compared to a year ago. A constant supply of weapons and defence technology from the US-led NATO has ensured that Ukraine remains on its feet in the battleground. The outcome of the conflict seems to have become a prestige issue for both sides.
Meanwhile, several developments on the diplomatic front this week have further dampened hopes of an early resolution. US President Joe Biden reiterated his resolve to continue supporting Kyiv’s war efforts. The statement, which came during his surprise visit to Ukraine, has led many analysts to doubt whether the US has a real interest in ending the war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, is also not ready to blink either. During his State of the Nation address this week, he urged Russians to prepare for a long haul against the West. But it is Putin’s declaration that Russia is suspending its participation in the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that is more worrisome for the Western bloc. The treaty, which took effect in 2011, is the last nuclear arms reduction accord between the US and Russia, and Putin’s decision has the potential to renew the nuclear arms race between the two nations. One can only take hope from the fact that Russia has so far only “suspended” its participation and has not altogether walked away from it.
Apart from this small glimmer, hope has eluded the sufferers of the war for most of the previous year. Russia’s hope of finishing the offensive within days has not come to fruition. The US and its allies have imposed heavy diplomatic and economic costs on Russia, and Ukraine is not fancying a decisive victory despite the West’s strategic backing. Its boundary is changing on the battleground daily. While the Kremlin remains steadfast in continuing the battle of attrition, the US-led coalition is also not ready to back down from feeding the war by supporting the Ukrainian army. It seems unmindful of the fact that the war is being fought inside Ukraine’s border, and its continuation is only going to devastate the country further.
Ukraine has already lost territory, infrastructure, and most importantly, thousands of lives. The country’s economy lies in tatters, and the war has displaced more than 15 million Ukrainians, both internally and to other countries. Over 5 million children and teenagers in the country have been affected, and psychologists believe many of them will carry the mental scars of war for the rest of their lives. The war may have turned Ukrainian President Zelensky into a hero in the eyes of many people, but one cannot ignore that his country’s sustenance on the battlefield is borrowed. One can never be sure how long it will last.
The fear of Russia may have compelled Ukraine’s benefactors to put their differences on the back burner, but they are also paying the price for taking sides. The possibility of a direct conflict between NATO and Russian forces is the highest in decades, and Europe’s security woes and increasing distrust between the world’s leading powers are pushing humanity to the brink of another world war. The Western world’s insistence on punishing anyone who wants to retain economic relations with Russia could prove counterproductive. We have seen how the US Export Control Act of 1940 became one of the factors that pushed imperial Japan to the Second World War.
The Act granted the President the authority to regulate the trade of all commodities. While the stated aim of the law was to avoid scarcity of important items at a time when war was on the horizon, it soon became a tool to punish countries that Uncle Sam deemed unfavourable. Japan was one among them. It relied heavily on the US for oil supplies, and the US administration’s freezing of all its US-based properties and bank accounts came as a big jolt to the Japanese economy. It eventually created circumstances that led to Japan joining Hitler’s camp, and the rest is history.
The world has become bipolar again, and countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea are rallying around China to challenge the US-led world order. Countries like India and South Africa are trying to maintain a balance between both poles, which remains a rare exception. South Africa’s recent war exercises with Russia and China have surprised many Western analysts. They have sent a clear signal to the US faction about where its priorities lie.
The sentiment of non-alignment is resonating in most African nations. They all want to remain equidistant from the sparring parties in Ukraine, including small countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, which have won independence only recently. Yet, escalation of the war may lead to a dangerous situation where it might cease to be a problem for only a few interested parties. Even the remotest possibility of a nuclear conflict should worry the entire world. This is the primary reason why all countries should come together to end this war.
How will this happen?
Wars are either decided on the battlefield or at a negotiation table. With the former probability not in sight, the latter solution remains our only option. But how to bring both sides to the table? This is where India could play a role. New Delhi has cautiously maintained neutrality in the war and resisted all pressure to criticize Russia. Keeping consistent Western pressure in mind, how tenable is this stand? The Ukrainian government has gone to the extent of demanding stern action against India for maintaining trade ties with its enemy. However, New Delhi’s firm stance has forced the Zelensky administration to rethink its stand and consider the possibility of viewing India as a peacemaker instead.
PM Modi has talked to President Zelensky multiple times during the past year. He reminded the Russian President during a meeting last September that the era for war was over. The realization of this truth by both sides is the only way to meaningful dialogue. Democracy, Dialogue, and Diplomacy are the only means to end the war.
