Has The Karnataka Victory Brought Back The Congress’ Preeminence In The Opposition Camp?

Victory holds immense transformative power in politics, effectively countering any perception deficits. Its impact in Karnataka has not only revitalized the Congress but also shifted its status from being a major impediment to opposition unity to becoming the central force against the BJP. Numerous regional leaders, who previously thrived by criticizing and undermining the grand old party, have now embraced the Congress wholeheartedly.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee openly expressed her party’s willingness to support the Congress in up to 200 Lok Sabha seats. She firmly refused to relinquish any political space to the Congress in her state until the outcome of the Karnataka battle was determined. The state election results have received praise from Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav, and even Kerala’s communist Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who advised the Congress Party to remain focused on its true objectives amidst the victory celebrations. These endorsements join the ranks of influential political players like Nitish Kumar, Sharad Pawar, Tejaswi Yadav, MK Stalin, Uddhav Thackeray, and Hemant Soren, who already recognize the Congress’ pivotal position in the opposition camp.
However, the question remains: Will Mamata’s newfound support for the Congress be sufficient to unify the opposition? Making predictions carries its own risks, considering Mamata Banerjee’s past actions and current political compulsions. It is worth noting that she chose to congratulate the people of Karnataka rather than the party itself, potentially indicating that her changed stance is a response to the prevailing political realities rather than a true ideological shift.

Many political analysts had raised doubts about whether the TMC was secretly aligning with the BJP, particularly after the Congress Party’s diminished prospects in the elections in Goa, Meghalaya, and Tripura. Mamata Banerjee faced pressure to establish her secular credentials by taking a firmer anti-BJP stance. Her vision of a coalition independent of the two major national parties was always unlikely to materialize, given that other influential regional leaders like Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar were convinced of the Congress Party’s indispensability for opposition unity. The TMC’s political dominance in its state is increasingly being challenged, as evidenced by its recent defeat at the hands of the Left-Congress joint candidate in the Sagardighi Assembly polls. This outcome raises questions about Mamata’s exclusive claim over the state’s Muslim votes. The turnout at recent rallies held by the Left-Congress alliance in Birbhum, Nadia, Murshidabad, and Malda also points in the same direction. Mamata Banerjee may be concerned about the consolidation of Muslim votes in favor of the Congress in Karnataka. It is possible that she hopes to maintain the Muslim community’s satisfaction by keeping the Congress in good spirits. However, her offer of support in 200 seats comes with the condition that the Congress should be ready to play a secondary role in seats where regional parties hold strong influence.

On the other hand, the Congress party is well aware of the reasons behind the Trinamool’s change in stance. This is why it has given the cold shoulder to the Trinamool’s overtures. Meanwhile, Telangana Chief Minister KCR faces his own dilemma. He has yet to decide whether to congratulate the Congress Party for its victory in Karnataka, especially since he considers himself the binding force in the opposition camp, or to prepare against it in the upcoming state elections.

In fact, Karnataka has emerged as a trigger that has brought Congress back to the center of the country’s politics. While some blame can be attributed to the BJP’s missteps, it would be unfair to say that Congress was not deserving of this victory. The Congress should be given full credit for this win because it is the result of the collective efforts of its central and local leadership, and ultimately, the outcome speaks to the fact that the Congress played its cards almost perfectly. In doing so, the Congress has also taken the initiative to adapt to changing circumstances. In its long political journey of 138 years, the Congress has, for the first time, adopted an aggressive approach, moving ahead from its traditional progressive stance in Mandal politics. Karnataka has provided a hopeful indication for the future.

The policy that Congress formulated on the issue of the caste census in its Udaipur Chintan Shivir last year and later during the Raipur Convention was revealed by Rahul Gandhi during Karnataka rallies. It is evident that this strategic change has not only helped the Congress in strengthening its alliance with Mandal supporters such as JD(U), RJD, SP, DMK, and NCP, but it has also increased its acceptability among a significant portion of the country’s population, particularly the marginalized and the poor. As we have seen in Karnataka, this transformation has proven to be not only a shield for Congress against the aggressive electoral campaigns of the BJP but also a winning weapon in elections. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi had not held numerous powerful rallies and road shows, one can imagine the damage this move by Congress could have caused to the BJP.

This shift in the Congress party’s approach has made the mega-battle of the 2024 elections even more interesting. It will be in direct competition with the BJP in almost half of the total Parliamentary seats.
The BJP’s historic victory in 2019 was greatly influenced by the support of approximately 60 percent of marginalized communities. The Congress now faces the challenge of reshaping the mindset of these communities with its evolving ideology. However, surpassing the transformative initiatives undertaken by the Modi government over the past nine years will be no easy task. The Modi government’s accomplishments, such as the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, surgical strikes against terrorism, progress in the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya following the Supreme Court’s verdict, the legal regulation of triple talaq, free ration distribution to the poor during the COVID-19 pandemic, noteworthy schemes like Swachh Bharat, housing and Ujjwala for improving the living standards of rural and urban poor, doubling the number of highways, the introduction of modern trains like Vande Bharat, and successful initiatives in the digital and startup sectors that have influenced various segments of Indian society, are all to the credit of the Modi government.

However, even with all the achievements and popularity, each new election presents a fresh set of challenges. This holds true for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has completed 9 years in office and now faces the forthcoming general elections as a significant challenge. Undeniably, the Prime Minister’s political stature and accomplishments have attained immense magnitude. Yet, securing a mandate and rejuvenating for another 5 years after a decade in power is no easy task.

The upcoming time will clarify whether Karnataka has provided indications of the emergence of bipolar politics and whether the BJP needs to reconsider its strategy. Prior to the general elections, the party will also have to address the challenge of local versus central dynamics in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where dissatisfied factions have been openly vocal against Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Vasundhra Raje. Additionally, the party will need to rethink its approach towards the gravitation of Muslim voters against it, as has been observed in West Bengal and now in Karnataka. Moreover, despite the BJP dismissing the opposition-ruled states’ implementation of free schemes as mere populism, it will have to find ways to counter them as the challenge continues to mount, following Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, now in Karnataka as well.

The path to the Congress’ resurgence still remains thorny, notwithstanding the Karnataka victory or obeisance from regional parties. Change is the only constant in politics, and nobody can predict how long regional players will accept the party’s captaincy. The party faces significant battles in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh ahead of the 2024 general polls. Any laxity in these elections could come at a high cost to Congress’s hopes of reversing its dwindling fortunes.