Two new exit polls released on Wednesday, 12 November 2025, point towards a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar.
According to Axis My India, the ruling alliance has a clear edge over the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), while Today’s Chanakya forecasts an even larger margin of victory.
Both surveys predict a poor debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is expected to make little electoral impact in its first contest.
Axis My India Forecasts Close Contest, RJD as Single-Largest Party
The Axis My India Exit Poll suggests a tight race, projecting the NDA to win 121–141 seats and the MGB to secure 98–118 seats.
It places Jan Suraaj between 0–2 seats. Interestingly, the poll indicates that the RJD could still emerge as the single-largest party, with 67–76 seats, followed by JD(U) with 56–62, BJP with 50–56, and the Congress with 17–21.
Smaller parties such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party and Left parties are projected to win 3–5 and 10–14 seats, respectively.
According to Axis My India, the NDA’s vote share stands at 43%, while the MGB trails slightly with 41%, and Jan Suraaj garners 4%.
In terms of leadership preference, 34% of respondents favour Tejashwi Yadav as the next Chief Minister, while 22% prefer Nitish Kumar to continue.
The survey also highlights a gender-based split, with the NDA drawing 41% of male votes and 45% of female votes, compared with 42% and 40% for the MGB.
Today’s Chanakya Predicts a Big Win for NDA
The Today’s Chanakya poll paints a more decisive picture, forecasting 160 seats (±12) for the BJP and its allies, while projecting 77 seats (±12) for the RJD-led alliance.
It estimates the NDA’s vote share at 44% (±3%), compared with 38% (±3%) for the opposition bloc.
These findings reinforce the broader trend across major pollsters, most of whom predict the return of the NDA government in Bihar.
Comparison Across Polling Agencies
Several other exit polls also point towards a similar outcome.
- Matrize predicts 147–167 seats for the NDA and 70–90 for the MGB.
- Dainik Bhaskar projects 145–160 for the NDA and 73–91 for the MGB.
- People’s Insight gives the NDA 133–148 and MGB 87–102.
- People’s Pulse forecasts 133–159 for the NDA and 75–101 for the MGB.
- JVC and Polstrat both predict NDA tallies between 133–150 and MGB between 87–103.
- Chanakya Strategies gives the NDA 130–138, MGB 100–108, and zero to Jan Suraaj.
- P-Marq projects 142–162 for the NDA and 80–98 for the MGB.
With the majority mark at 122 seats, nearly every exit poll anticipates an NDA majority.
Bihar voted in two phases on 6 and 11 November, recording a historic 67.14% turnout — the highest in the state’s history.
Voters will learn the outcome on Friday, 14 November, in what many see as a referendum on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership and a test of Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD comeback bid.
As the counting day approaches, anticipation grows across the state to see whether the exit poll predictions match the official results.
Also Read: Bihar Polls Counting Day: 4,372 Tables, 18,000 Agents Deployed; ECI Ensures Smooth Process
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