Russian Oil Makes Its Way to Europe Through India’s Diesel Exports

Preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that India’s refiners were able to increase their exports of diesel and jet fuel to Europe during the fiscal year 2022-23, as the continent turned away from Russian products. This was facilitated by record-high imports of crude oil from Russia, which provided Indian refiners with affordable raw materials to boost their output and profits. As a result, they were able to compete effectively in the European market and expand their market share.

Kpler data indicated that Europe’s average daily imports of diesel and jet fuel from India were around 1,54,000 barrels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, after the European Union implemented a ban on the importation of oil products from Russia beginning on February 5th, this figure rose to 200,000 barrels per day.

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Moreover, the data also mentioned that India has been importing Russian crude for seven consecutive months in March, making Russia the top supplier of crude oil to India. This marks the first time that Russia has displaced Iraq from this position. Despite the high transport costs that made Indian refiners hesitant to purchase Russian oil in the past, they imported 9,70,000-9,81,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the 2022/23 fiscal year, which accounts for over a fifth of the country’s overall imports at 4.5-4.6 million bpd.

According to the data, imports from Iraq have decreased from almost 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021/22 to 9,36,000-9,61,000 bpd. Despite Russia’s flagship grade, Urals, being the primary purchase of India, refiners are now importing lighter grades from Russia’s Far East and Arctic regions such as Sokol, Arco, Novy Port, and ESPO blend.

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, and Indian Oil Corp, the top Indian refiner, have signed a term deal to increase and diversify oil grades delivered to India significantly.

According to data from Kpler and Vortexa, Europe’s ban on Russian products resulted in a 12-16% increase in India’s diesel exports to the continent, reaching 150,000-167,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the last fiscal year. This accounts for about 30% of India’s total gasoil exports, which is up from 21-24% in the previous year.

Furthermore, France, Turkey, Belgium, and the Netherlands are the primary European buyers of Indian diesel. Europe accounted for roughly 50% of India’s jet fuel exports, or around 70,000-75,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the 2022/23 fiscal year, which is up from 40,000-42,000 bpd the previous year. In addition to increasing exports to Europe, India has also increased vacuum gas oil (VGO) shipments to the U.S.

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According to the data, the U.S. imported approximately 11,000-12,000 barrels per day (bpd) of vacuum gas oil (VGO) in the 2022/23 fiscal year, which is equivalent to 65-81% of India’s total exports of this refining feedstock that can be further processed to produce fuels like diesel and gasoline. In contrast, India exported only around 500 bpd of VGO to the U.S. in 2021/22.

However, due to some refiners shutting down units for maintenance in the latter half of 2022, India’s total annual refined fuel exports were lower than the previous year.