Musk Urges Early Retirement Of ISS; Cites Safety Risks And Ageing Structure

On Friday, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk called for the International Space Station (ISS) to be taken out of orbit within the next two years, significantly earlier than NASA’s current plan for 2031.

NASA intends to deorbit the ISS in 2031, with development of a deorbit vehicle targeted for completion by 2028.

The ISS, a collaborative project between NASA, Roscosmos, the European Space Agency, the Canadian Space Agency, and Japan’s space agency JAXA, has been active since 1998.

It has continuously hosted crews of astronauts since November 2000 and plays a key role in space science and preparation for future missions beyond Earth orbit.

Musk voiced serious concerns about the ageing condition of the station and the potential risks to those aboard.

Taking to X, Musk posted, “There are potentially serious concerns about the long-term safety of the @Space_Station. Some parts of it are simply getting too old and obviously that risk grows over time.”

“Even though @SpaceX earns billions of dollars from transporting astronauts & cargo to the ISS, I nonetheless would like to go on record recommending that it be de-orbited within 2 years,” the post read.

Response to structural leak warnings

His comments came in response to a post by physicist Casey Handmer, a former NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory engineer. Handmer warned of ‘multiple, and increasingly frequent, leaks’ aboard the ISS.

Handmer stressed the severity of the situation, noting, “The ISS’s structural integrity is far more marginal than is being publicly discussed. We are having multiple, and increasingly frequent, leaks from heavily fatigued node segments in the Russian section. When Aluminum gets flexed it fatigues and gets harder, increasing its tendency to crack. Cracks concentrate forces at their tips, and spread over time. Multiple cracks have been discovered. ”

“There is no “factor of safety” associated with this failure mode. None of the structural pressure vessels are meant to crack. We are not even single fault tolerant on the structural integrity of the station. We could wake up tomorrow and find, with zero warning, that it has failed catastrophically,” he posted on X.

The post further added, “Whether that means a leak slow enough to close some hatches, get the crew out or at least into safer parts of the station, is a roll of the dice. It could also depressurize in less than a minute.”

NASA’s Deorbit solution

Despite these warnings, NASA awarded SpaceX an $843 million contract in June 2024 to build the US Deorbit Vehicle (USDV).

Based on SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, the vehicle will dock with the ISS and guide it to a safe re-entry over the South Pacific to avoid risk to human life or infrastructure.

Musk, who has consistently championed Mars as the next frontier for humanity, reiterated his stance earlier this year.

In a February post, Musk posted, “It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station. It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility. Let’s go to Mars.”

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