Market Outlook For The Week Ahead: Key Economic Data & Earnings To Guide Direction

The market outlook for the upcoming week will be largely influenced by crucial macroeconomic indicators and the final batch of Q2 earnings reports.

India will release the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data on 12 November, followed by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) report on 14 November.

These figures will offer insights into inflationary pressures and industrial activity, which could have a significant impact on investor sentiment.

On the global front, the US inflation report on 13 November will be key to shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates.

Any significant shifts in inflation could lead to changes in market outlook and influence global equity markets, including India.

The previous week saw Indian stock indices retreating sharply, with the Nifty down by 0.64%, losing 156 points to close at 24,248, while the Sensex fell 0.30%, dropping 237 points to settle at 79,486.

Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings results, a stronger US dollar, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling.

FIIs continued to exert downward pressure on the market, offloading a significant Rs 19,637 crore in the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided a counterbalance by purchasing Rs 14,391 crore.

Market Outlook: Nifty Struggles, Bank Nifty Faces Resistance

This divergence between domestic and foreign investors highlights the ongoing tug-of-war between local support and external capital outflows.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart stated, “For the Nifty, the index struggled to cross its 20-day moving average (20-DMA) around the 24,500 level. Sustaining above the 20-DMA is essential for a meaningful short-covering rally, with resistance levels at 24,700 and 25,000. On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,075, with additional support at 23,800 and the 200-DMA around 23,500.”

Palka Arora Chopra, Director of Master Capital Services asserted, “Bank Nifty ended the week flat, facing strong resistance in the 52,500-52,600 range. The index is trading within a 2,000-point range, with buying seen around 50,500 and selling at 52,500. It’s now to move toward the lower end of this range. Immediate resistance is at 51,800, which could push the index back up to 52,500. On the downside, if Bank Nifty breaks below 51,300, it may fall further to 50,800.”

She advised that if Bank Nifty closes below the 21-day EMA, investors should adopt a ‘sell on rise’ approach in the coming week. This strategy will help stay aligned with the current market trend.

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