India’s sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to 34.90 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, starting October, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
The estimate is significantly higher than the 26.10 million tonnes produced in the current 2024-25 season.
ISMA President Gautam Goel released the first preliminary estimate on Thursday and said, “We estimate sugar production to rise to 34.90 million tonnes, with an upward bias, and see scope for exporting 2 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season.”
Export Potential and Ethanol Diversion to Increase
Goel stated that 5 million tonnes of sugar could be diverted for ethanol production next season, compared to 3.5 million tonnes this season. The government has already allowed 1 million tonnes of sugar exports for the ongoing 2024-25 season.
ISMA plans to request the government for timely approval to export 2 million tonnes of sugar in the upcoming season. The association will also push for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar and a hike in ethanol prices, particularly those derived from B molasses and cane juice.
Top Sugar-Producing States to Drive Growth
ISMA projected higher sugar output in the major sugarcane-producing states for 2025-26:
- Uttar Pradesh: 10.25 million tonnes
- Maharashtra: 13.26 million tonnes
- Karnataka: 6.61 million tonnes
Better yields, increased acreage, and a favourable monsoon are driving the boost in production. These factors will also raise sugarcane output to 13.26 million tonnes, up from 9.33 million tonnes this year.
Gautam Goel emphasised the importance of early policy decisions to ensure export feasibility and encourage ethanol blending. With improved yields and favourable conditions, the sugar sector expects a strong season ahead, balancing domestic needs, exports, and ethanol supply.
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