India will drive 6% of global trade growth over the next five years, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report. New York University’s Stern School of Business and DHL published the report, which analyzes trade patterns in nearly 200 countries.
India ranks third in absolute trade growth, following China (12%) and the United States (10%).
The report highlights that global trade continues to grow despite geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties.
India will maintain its third position in the trade growth scale due to its rapid expansion.
It will also rise in trade speed rankings, moving from 32nd to 17th place.
Although India ranked as the 13th largest global trader in 2024, its trade volume grew at a compound annual rate of 5.2% from 2019 to 2024, far exceeding the global average of 2.0%.
The report states that India’s trade-to-GDP ratio nearly matched China’s in 2023.
When considering both goods and services, India’s trade intensity surpassed China’s.
Over the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will rank among the top 30 countries in both trade speed and scale.
RS Subramanian, SVP of South Asia, DHL Express, told ANI, “The Trade Atlas highlights India’s rapid global trade expansion, establishing it as a key hub between East and West. While trade volume will grow, we remain cautiously optimistic due to global economic volatility.”
India’s Foreign Trade Performance
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported that India’s cumulative exports (merchandise and services) from April 2024 to February 2025 reached $750.53 billion, up from $706.43 billion in the same period last year—a 6.24% increase.
Electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, minerals, textiles, and coffee led export growth in February 2025.
India maintained strong trade ties with key partners like the US, UAE, UK, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia.
The Ministry of Finance reported that India’s trade deficit for FY24 fell to $78.12 billion from $121.6 billion in FY23.
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