A mere few hours of mutiny by the dreaded Wagner group sent shockwaves through the core of the Putin administration. This rebellion, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a loyalist of President Vladimir Putin, has mercilessly shattered the meticulously crafted image of Putin as Russia’s savior. In just over 23 hours, a reputation painstakingly built over 23 years lies in ruins. This unprecedented turn of events raises grave concerns about the stability of Putin’s grip on power and his future.
It is astounding that President Putin, who has defiantly stood against an overwhelming global majority for over a year, failed to foresee Prigozhin’s treachery. Ultimately, it fell upon Chechen fighters to rescue Putin, standing like an impenetrable wall on the road from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow. The mighty Russian Army remained conspicuously absent from the scene even as the Wagner fighters were threatening to breach the Kremlin’s power corridors.
Putin had no choice but to depend on the mediation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to avert the perils of overthrow. Some reports even suggest that Prigozhin disdained answering the Russian president’s phone call. Thus, Putin was compelled to allow Prigozhin to take shelter in Belarus and grant a general amnesty to Wagner’s rebel fighters, dismissing them as misguided patriots.
The world has long regarded Putin as an unyielding leader, brooking no challenge to his authority. However, with Prigozhin’s swift redemption in Belarus, it becomes clear that Putin is not infallible. Now, all eyes are fixed upon the uncertain future awaiting Wagner and its chief. Prigozhin may find himself shifting to the tumultuous landscapes of Syria or Africa, where his mercenaries already wage battles or suffer the same dire consequences as many of Putin’s previous adversaries.
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The immediate aftermath of the insurrection is more significant than the circumstances surrounding it or the fate of Prigozhin and his fighters. Prigozhin’s audacity raises crucial questions for President Putin and his generals: how should they interpret this act? Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus continues to pose a threat to Putin, particularly if he chooses not to support Russia’s war efforts. The Kremlin will remain skeptical of Prigozhin employing similar tactics in the future, and the capabilities of President Lukashenko’s police and army may prove insufficient to keep him in check.
The Wagner chief’s anti-Putin diatribe has caused immense embarrassment for the Putin administration on both national and international fronts, significantly undermining its efforts to maintain unity within the country during the ongoing war. The crisis has emerged just on the eve of the Russia-Africa Summit, scheduled to take place in St. Petersburg on July 27-28. President Putin’s intentions of projecting a stable and powerful state through the summit now lie in ruins. How will he be able to assure African nations of his unwavering support with the same authority as before?
However, Putin faces even greater challenges as he strives to keep India, China, and Latin American countries by his side. The Wagner mutiny has further complicated his task. President Putin dialed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday to discuss the unfolding situation. This conversation assumes heightened significance, particularly coming on the heels of PM Modi’s visit to the United States. Interestingly, Putin has not extended the same courtesy to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, even as Beijing’s silence regarding the Wagner rebellion has left many surprised.
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It remains premature to gauge the full impact of Prigozhin’s antics on the outcome of the Ukraine war. Russia’s military strategists had already relieved the Wagner mercenaries of frontline duties. Nevertheless, their thwarted march towards Moscow is likely to have an adverse effect on the morale of Russia’s troops and potentially invigorate Kyiv with renewed hope for favorable results.
Regardless, Wagner’s challenge to Putin’s authority has shattered the illusion of unwavering support from Russia’s elite. Prigozhin has demonstrated that it is possible to unsettle President Putin, who now must worry about the possibility of others following suit. This could further isolate Putin and exacerbate his weakening position.
A dictator who realizes their diminishing power is far more dangerous than one who remains deluded by their own might. Putin may be inclined to salvage his tarnished image through unilateral military actions against Western nations. We can only hope that this does not escalate to a point where all options are fair game, including the deployment of nuclear weapons. The completion of the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus makes it no longer a question of Russia’s or Putin’s prestige, but rather a matter of humanity’s survival.
