Russia Backs Off From United Nations And Turkey-Brokered Black Sea Grain Deal; What About Ukraine Now?

Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal which allowed a smooth flow of grain, oil, and fertilizer from Ukraine through the ports of the Black Sea. The deal was met with the intervention of the United Nations and Turkey. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson expressed at a press conference that Moscow will only step into this deal if their demands are met.

What does Russia want?

Russia is demanding the lifting of the Exports that have been hampered by Western sanctions against Russian fertilizer businesses and limitations on maritime insurance. Dmitry Peskov said, “The Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today. Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements concerning Russia has not been implemented so far. So, its effect is terminated.”

As per the Russian reports, Moscow has already let Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN know that it is opposed to the grain deal’s continuation.

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Ukraine – the Bread Basket of Europe

The largest exporter of seed oils, as well as one of the largest exporters of grains including maize, wheat, and barley as well as fertilisers, Ukraine is frequently referred to as the “breadbasket of Europe.” Seventy percent of India’s yearly imports of sunflower oil came from Ukraine in 2022. Twenty percent of the 25 lakh tonnes of sunflower oil that India buys each year comes from Russia, while ten percent comes from Argentina.

After explosives left two people dead and one injured on Monday, Moscow accused Kiev of targeting the Kerch Bridge that connects the Crimean peninsula to Russia. The incident, according to Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov, had no impact on the Kremlin’s decision to halt the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

How is Ukraine going to deal with this Russian action on the Black Sea Grain Deal?

Although this judgment is a major setback for Ukraine, experts point out that the nation was anticipating this outcome given the decline in grain shipments along this route.

Food exports via the Black Sea route have decreased recently, falling from 4.2 million metric tonnes in October of last year to 1.3 million metric tonnes in May of this year. Russia has been charged by Ukraine with employing inspections of grain shipments to stall exports.

Kyiv has therefore planned alternatives, like as making the Danube River route the primary one for exports. Since February 2022, the route has become a significant export route, carrying 190,000 tonnes of grain per month.

Sanjay Kumar Pandey, a professor at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, explained the scenario. He said, “Danube River route is cheaper and can be used to ship grains to Europe. However, a majority of Ukraine’s exports go to countries such as China, Yemen, Egypt, and Afghanistan among others, where it is neither feasible nor cost-effective to use this route.”