Is BJP Set To Breach Mamata Banerjee’s Fortress? AI Exit Poll Predicts Big Shift In West Bengal

An AI-driven exit poll conducted by AM Analytics for Bharat Express indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party is poised to secure a clear majority in West Bengal, potentially breaching what is often referred to as ‘Didi’s fortress’.

The projections suggest the BJP could win between 57% and 65% of the total Assembly seats.

As voting concluded for the West Bengal Legislative Assembly election 2026, exit polls began shaping political discourse. They influenced discussions across the state and beyond.

According to the estimates, the BJP may secure between 170 and 200 seats in the 294-member Assembly.

While official results are due on 4 May, these projections have already generated significant debate.

The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, appears to be facing a substantial decline, with projections placing its tally between 31% and 42% of the seats. This marks a sharp contrast to the 2021 Assembly elections, when the TMC secured a dominant 215 seats, while the BJP managed 77.

The contest also appears tight in terms of vote share. The AI exit poll estimates that the BJP will secure around 40% to 45% of the vote, while the TMC will receive between 44% and 46%.

In the 2021 elections, the TMC secured 48.02% of the vote. The BJP followed with 38.15%, underscoring the narrowing gap in voter support.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) emerged as a key issue during the campaign. Mamata Banerjee frequently criticised the BJP over the matter, and the AI exit poll suggests it may have influenced voter sentiment.

Around 70.7% of respondents believe SIR significantly impacted seat outcomes, while 29.3% disagreed.

In broader public opinion, 50% considered it impactful, 24% dismissed it, and 26% remained uncertain. These projections have sparked fresh political debate in West Bengal.

With the BJP predicted to gain a strong advantage, attention now shifts to 4 May. The results will determine whether Mamata Banerjee retains power or the state witnesses a major political transition.

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