Saudi Checkmate: How Riyadh Outmanoeuvred The UAE In Yemen And The Horn Of Africa

For nearly a decade, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) partnered with Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s civil war, backing the southern secessionist force known as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seems to be factioned between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, against the Iran-aligned Houthis. But by early January 2026, that relationship fractured dramatically.

Saudi Arabia has accused the UAE of smuggling STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi out of Yemen and of continuing to arm his faction despite Riyadh’s containment efforts.

Additionally, Emirate-backed STC’s attempt to consolidate control over southern Yemen, including Aden, a move viewed in Riyadh as a threat to Yemen’s territorial unity.

This triggered the Kingdom, and as a result, Saudi forces responded with airstrikes against STC positions and moved to dismantle the separatist leadership’s influence inside government structures.

Within days, what had been a 10-year UAE engagement in Yemen was effectively reversed.

Saudi pressure, including military action and diplomatic leveraging, forced Emirati forces to withdraw rapidly, ending Abu Dhabi’s direct role in the conflict, as most of the STC leaders now camping in Riyadh, far more abruptly than analysts expected.

This marks a major realignment in Yemen’s war and signals widening fault lines between the two Gulf powers.

The turmoil in Yemen has spilt across the Red Sea into Somalia, igniting a diplomatic rupture between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi.

Somalia Annuls Agreements with the UAE

On 12 January 2026, Somalia’s federal government annulled all agreements with the UAE, citing credible evidence that UAE actions had undermined Somalia’s sovereignty, national unity, and political independence.

The cancellation erased deals on security cooperation, defence pacts, and port partnerships, including in Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo — strategic gateways for trade and military presence.

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence, a self-declared state in northern Somalia, in late December 2025 partly triggered the move.

Reports suggest that the UAE played a quiet role in facilitating this diplomatic breakthrough, amplifying Mogadishu’s sense of betrayal.

Somalia’s central decision has not been universally accepted inside the country.

Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland — semi-autonomous regions with deep ties to the UAE — have rejected Mogadishu’s annulment and vowed to uphold existing agreements linked to Emirati investments and security cooperation.

While DP World, the Dubai-based port operator, says its work at Berbera port remains unaffected, the larger political fallout is significant.

Abu Dhabi’s longstanding influence via logistics, security training, and economic investments now clashes directly with Somalia’s assertion of sovereignty.

Meanwhile, protesters in Mogadishu have taken to the streets to condemn Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and the perceived role of foreign powers in fragmenting Somali territorial integrity, a sign of how regional geopolitics has inflamed domestic nationalist sentiment.

Against the backdrop of UAE-Somalia tensions and the collapse of the STC project in Yemen, new alliances are taking shape.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey- once rivals in parts of the Middle East- have been drawing closer on key regional security issues.

Ankara has expressed support for Riyadh’s efforts to stabilise Yemen, the Red Sea corridor, and positions on Sudan and Somalia, reflecting a surprising convergence of interests. Their cooperation marks a strategic pivot that complicates the UAE’s attempts to carve out a standalone sphere of influence.

Sudan Emerges as Another Proxy Theatre

In Sudan, where fierce fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has persisted since 2023, external backers have taken sides.

Reports have linked the UAE to supporting the RSF, while Pakistan, backed by Saudi Arabia, is moving to supply fighter jets and strengthen the regular army.

This proxy dynamic underscores how Gulf rivalries play out far beyond the peninsula. There are also emerging controversies in Europe alleging that the UAE has financed campaigns hostile to Muslim communities, adding to concerns about Abu Dhabi’s broader strategic posture.

The rapid breakdown in relations between the UAE and its former allies in Yemen and Somalia signals a reshuffling of power in West Asia and the Horn of Africa.

Saudi Arabia, now increasingly cautious about Abu Dhabi’s ambitions, appears intent on reasserting dominance over regional security architectures.

Turkey’s backing strengthens Riyadh’s hand and adds new complexity to alliances that once seemed rigid.

What happens next will shape not only geopolitics around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden but also influence global trade routes, international diplomacy on sovereignty and recognition, and the balance of influence among Middle Eastern powers.

These shifts could redefine alignments from Riyadh to Mogadishu, with consequences for Africa, the Middle East, and beyond.