Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall Forecast In South Asia

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum predicted today that most portion of South Asia will have above-normal rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon season.

The projection follows the prediction of above-normal rainfall in India’s monsoon season due to beneficial La Nina conditions, which are projected to arrive in August-September.

“Above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of south Asia, except some areas over northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, where below-normal rainfall is most likely”, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) predicted.

During the season, most sections of South Asia are expected to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures, leaving few areas in the region’s Southeast, where normal temperatures are most likely.

This regional climate prediction for the 2024 southwest monsoon season was created by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), with assistance from foreign specialists, during the 28th session of SASCOF-28, which was held online.

According to the SASCOF, mild El Nino conditions are now persisting. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are forecast during the first half of the monsoon season. La Nina conditions may develop by the second half.

El Nino circumstances ( periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean) are linked to lower monsoon winds and drier weather in India.

DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said, “La Nina conditions — the antithesis of El Nino — are the dominant factor in the likelihood of “above-normal” rainfall during the monsoon season”.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, which are conducive to the Indian monsoon, are expected later in the season.

Furthermore, the snow cover in the northern hemisphere is low.

The extent of northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover is often inversely proportional to the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall across South Asia.

Earlier this month, the IMD predicted that the seasonal rainfall in India will be above normal, at 106% of the long-period average (87 cm).

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