Brent Crude Could Hit $120 If West Asia Tensions Escalate: Brickwork Ratings

Brent crude prices could remain elevated through the second half of FY27 and may rise to $120 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in West Asia intensify, according to a Brickwork Ratings report released on Monday.

The ratings agency’s base-case scenario, which carries a 55 per cent probability, projects Brent crude to average between $95 and $110 per barrel in the second half of FY27.

The scenario assumes continued regional disruptions, with pipeline and shipping operations recovering only partially.

Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, said Brent futures had risen around 20 per cent in a month to nearly $109 per barrel on September 15, while physical Brent reached $130.80, signalling tight supply conditions.

Sharan expects Brent to trade in a broad range of $100-$110 per barrel over the next one to two months, although risks remain tilted towards higher prices. He said prices could approach $120 if supply disruptions worsen, while reopening the Strait of Hormuz could bring them down towards $90.

The report projected the Indian rupee at Rs 94-98 against the US dollar, CPI inflation at 5-5.5 per cent and FY27 real GDP growth at 6.6-7 per cent under its base case.

Brickwork Ratings estimated that a sustained $10 rise in crude prices could widen India’s current account deficit by 0.3-0.4 per cent of GDP and add 20-30 basis points to inflation over a year.

Prolonged Hormuz disruption could push Brent to $120 or higher, fuelling inflation and weakening the rupee. A ceasefire could lower prices to $80-$90.

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