Can Karnataka Polls be the Congress Party’s Revival Moment?

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) break the 38-year-old political tradition in Karnataka, or will the Indian National Congress benefit from the power shift that occurs every five years in the state? The answer will be revealed on May 13, but the importance of the Karnataka Assembly polls cannot be underestimated. The outcome of the state’s battles, which are scheduled to take place this year, will determine the momentum of the 2024 General elections. Although the recent verdict in the North-Eastern states has set the ball rolling, it may be premature to consider it a definitive indicator, given the size and presence of major national players in those states. Karnataka is not only significant in terms of political weight but also as the BJP’s only stronghold in the southern part of the country. The BJP and the Congress, the two main contenders at the national level, will face each other directly. Although the presence of the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) makes it a triangular fight, national parties will have higher stakes in the outcome.

For the first time in the state, the BJP will enter the fray without a CM face. This could be interpreted as the BJP’s acknowledgment that the battle will not be easy. Yeddyurappa, its mainstay leader for almost four decades, is out of the race, and the party’s inability to find a replacement leaves only PM Modi to fill the gap. It will be another test of his popularity. The party is facing anti-incumbency and numerous corruption allegations in the state, while the opposition has launched attacks on the national level. The prospect of a “double-engine government” may work in the BJP’s favor. Losing Karnataka would mean an emboldened opposition and a setback for the party’s efforts to establish a foothold in other southern states.

The Congress, on the other hand, smells victory in Karnataka, which is a welcome feeling for the party, especially after losing Maharashtra and Punjab. Encouraging trends are visible from the ground and opinion polls. It helps that the current Congress President, Mallikarjun Kharge, hails from the state. However, Rahul Gandhi is likely to be the focus of the campaign. His “Bharat Jodo Yatra” had attracted some attention in the state. The result will also be viewed as the people’s verdict on his disqualification from Parliament. Priyanka Gandhi has already urged her party to answer the BJP by winning Karnataka. This underscores the Congress Party’s realization that losing Karnataka would also mean the end of its entitlement as the main opposition party. It would be a blow to the efforts of a united opposition, and regional leaders like Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and KCR would seek other options to checkmate the BJP. The success of the party’s attempts to revamp Rahul Gandhi’s image also hinges on a good showing in Karnataka. The party has taken the lead in the declaration of candidates and outlining its promises. When was the last time we saw the grand old party outdo its rivals in poll preparations? It is hoping to attract voters with generous pledges, such as a monthly allowance of Rs 2000 for women under the “Grihlakshmi Yojana,” Rs 3000 per month for unemployed youth, and 200 units of free electricity every month for every household.

The Lingayat community is the key to political power in Karnataka. Despite pressing issues such as corruption, inflation, and unemployment, every political party in the state recognizes this reality. The Lingayats make up approximately 18 percent of the population and have a direct impact on the outcome of 110 out of 224 Assembly constituencies. Nine Lingayats have held the position of Chief Minister so far, including Yeddyurappa and the current incumbent, Bommai. Thanks to Yeddyurappa, the BJP has had a stronghold on the community for some time now. However, this may change as the party gave an unceremonious farewell to Yeddyurappa. To counter this anger, the BJP has promised to redistribute the four percent reservation withdrawn from Muslims equally among Lingayats and Vokkaligas.

The Congress has shown renewed urgency in regaining its lost hold among Lingayats. Rahul Gandhi was initiated into the sect by the Mahant (Chief Priest) of the influential Muruga Math. Analysts believe that Lingayats abandoned the Congress in 1990 mainly after Rajiv Gandhi purportedly humiliated the then party Chief Minister and a major Lingayat leader, Virendra Patil, who was dismissed at the airport.

The Vokkaliga community is the second major community in Karnataka and accounts for 12 to 14 percent of the state’s population. Vokkaligas are the deciding factor in former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s stronghold of old Mysore, who himself belongs to the community. The Vokkaliga community is considered decisive on around 90 seats in the state, including in southern Karnataka’s Hassan, Mandya, Tumkur, Kolar, and Chikmagalur, and has ensured JD(S) continued relevance in the state. However, the Congress is hoping to benefit from HD Deve Gowda’s limited presence in public life and his son Kumarswamy’s lackluster political management. The current state party president, DK Shivakumar, also belongs to the community and will be a strong CM candidate.

However, the Congress also has another ace up its sleeve – its current National President, Mallikarjuna Kharge, who belongs to the Dalit community, the state’s largest vote bank. The Karnataka Assembly has 36 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 15 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Dalits and Adivasis have voted for the BJP in these 51 seats in the recent past. However, many Dalit leaders have lately rejoined the Congress. The community had actively participated in the Bharat Jodo Yatra, and Kharge’s presence could boost the party’s chances among Dalits. The party needs to cross its recent limit of 35-40 percent vote share to win a majority, which cannot happen without the support of Dalits.

Speculations will be rife until the public verdict is sealed, as pundits will closely watch signals for the 2024 mega battle. This is why even regional parties will be closely looking at the outcome. The picture for the next general elections will be clearer after Karnataka’s mandate.