Why is Xi Jinping afraid of PM Modi?

History bears testimony that to blindly trust the dragon is to dig a pit for your fall. India has learnt this lesson the harder way. Much water has flown through the Brahmaputra since 1962 but China’s behaviour has not changed a bit. It at all, its hegemonic tendencies have only worsened under President Xi Jinping’s watch. Beijing’s territorial and maritime disputes with as many as 17 neighbouring countries only underline this reality.

India shares a 3488-kilometre-long border with China as per New Delhi’s stated claim on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The de facto boundary has several flashpoints ranging from Aksai Chin in the north to Arunachal Pradesh in the northeastern region. PM Modi began his first tenure with sincere efforts to permanently mend fences with its larger neighbour. He showed warm hospitality towards President Xi but all he got in return was backstabbing.

The recent stand-off in Arunachal’s Tawang sector is only the latest episode in the Chinese Army’s serial breach of mutual agreements over recent years. The Doklam confrontation in 2017 and the Galwan clash in 2020 were the most prominent ones among them. India under PM Modi has so far held its nerve in the face of these grave provocations. However, the breach by the Chinese Army soldiers on 9-10 December only signifies Beijing’s ill intentions towards India.

Analysts are busy mulling these intentions. Does it aim to change the status quo at the Line of Actual Control or is it picking up a fight with India to divert attention from its domestic problems, of which there are aplenty? Some commentators see China’s increasing insecurity from India’s increasing economic rise as the real cause for its erratic behaviour along the LAC. Could it be President Xi’s resentment against PM Modi’s stature on the global stage?

Whatever might be the real reason; there is no denying that China’s expansionist designs against India are no longer a secret. Strategic analysts have repeatedly highlighted the Tawang region’s significance for China in terms of maintaining its stranglehold over Tibet. One can never understate the potential consequences of its activities in the region for Bhutan.

Several parallels can be drawn between Tawang’s strategic importance with that of Doklam. Notwithstanding that the latter is a part of Bhutan, India simply cannot afford Dragon’s shadow in that region. This is the reason that the Indian Army was so steadfast in standing up to the Red Army in Doklam in 2017 and eventually forcing its retreat.

The situation at an altitude of around 18,000 feet, the Tawang region lies at the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction. China believes it can oversee India’s access to its northeastern parts if it dominates this area. Needless to say, this also gives the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unassailable leverage over Thimpu.

Tawang also has a special place in Buddhism. It is believed to be the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama Tsangyang Gyatso. Born in 1643, he fulfilled the cherished wish of his predecessor Ngawang Lobsang Gyatso by establishing the Tawang Monastery in 1680-81. Tibetan Buddhists believe the Drepung Monastery in Lhasa to be the temporal seat of the Dalai Lama irrespective of where is reincarnated.

Near the place where Tsangyang took birth, there is a tall and magnificent tree. It is said that before departing for Drepung Monastery in Lhasa, a young Tsangyang made a prophecy stating that when the three main branches of the tree would become equal, he would come back to Tawang.

Local monks claim the prediction came true in 1959. It was the year when the 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso arrived in Tawang from Lhasa following the Chinese occupation of Tibet.

The present Chinese regime acknowledges the sixth Dalai Lama and even celebrates his birth anniversary to lay its claim over Tawang. But it cannot tolerate even the slightest mention of the current Dalai Lama who lives in exile in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh.

It is noteworthy that the latest incursion has come at a time when India has just assumed the G-20 presidency. India’s adroit diplomacy amid geopolitical headwinds has won accolades the world over. Compounding its unease was the recently concluded joint Indo-US joint military exercise in Uttarakhand’s Auli. Beijing had objected to the exercise by terming it a violation of the 1993 bilateral treaty.

India has also expedited several infrastructure projects along the China border under PM Modi’s watch. Out of the 61 roads in these regions considered strategically important, India had completed 42 by 2021. In addition to these 1530 kilometre-long roads, work has already started on additional 135 road projects spanning about 7,000 kilometres. Furthermore, 50,000 additional troops from the Mountain Strike Corps have now been deployed along the LAC. Coming to the Indian side of the border is no longer a cakewalk for the Chinese soldiers.

India is the fastest-growing major economy in the post-pandemic world whereas China’s growth rate has tumbled to 2.8 per cent this year as compared to 8.2 per cent in 2021. It is further likely to go down next year. This has only added to China’s worry vis a vis India.

India continues to be among the most favoured destination of global investors even as foreign capital continues to elude China. The Covid outbreak in China is spiralling out of control and this makes it even harder for China to assert influence over South Asia.

In sharp contrast to PM Modi’s rising profile on the global stage, President Xi Jinping is facing an unprecedented backlash within his country. It is a telling coincidence that the Tawang incursion took place on the night of PM Modi’s resounding victory in the Gujarat Assembly polls.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is known to use diversionary tactics to deal with domestic unrest and foment hypernationalism. It seems to be playing by the same script. The only difference is the PLA’s miserable failure this time around. One media report even quotes some Chinese netizens terming it as a “kids’ army.”

Despite all these contradictions, not many experts believe China would be willing to wage a full-fledged conflict with India. One of the major reasons is an ever-growing bilateral trade which is heavily tipped in China’s favour. The total volume of Indo-China trade has crossed $ 100 billion in the first nine months. While Chinese export to India has grown by 31 per cent to reach $ 89.66 billion, India’s export had decreased this year by 36.4 per cent to $ 13.97 billion. In other words, China has much to lose in the confrontation with India.

China is also wary of the lack of international support against India. Both the US and the United Nations have expressed satisfaction over the Tawang clash not escalating. The European Union has also spoken in a similar tone. Meanwhile, Beijing’s relations with the West are at an all-time low, the latest manifestation being the recent recalling of its diplomats from the UK. India’s Minister of External Affairs (MEA) S Jaishankar has just recently called the China-Pakistan hypocrisy in taking effective steps against terrorism at the UN. He also slammed Pakistan for misusing the world body to further its nefarious designs on Kashmir.

A rising India is a sore in China’s eyes. It cannot afford an open war against a nuclear-powered neighbour. This leaves the Red Army with the only option of resorting to such cowardly tactics as we saw in Tawang. But this episode is proof that the Indian Army is more ready than ever before to seal the dragon’s fire-breathing mouth.