Will Himanta Biswa Sarma Secure Another Term? AI Exit Poll Signals BJP Lead In Assam

The AI Exit Poll by Bharat Express News Network – AM Analytics indicates that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to hold strong public support.

As anticipation builds ahead of the 4 May counting, projections suggest that the BJP-led alliance is on course for a decisive victory.

According to multiple agencies, the NDA is expected to comfortably cross the majority mark in the 126-member Assembly.

Axis My India and Matrize estimate the BJP+ securing between 85 and 100 seats. Congress-led alliances may, however, face notable setbacks.

Axis My India: BJP+ (88–100), Congress+ (24–36), Others (0)

Matrize: BJP+ (85–95), Congress+ (25–32), Others (6–12)

Bharat Express–AM Analytics: BJP+ (82–94), Congress+ (28–38), Others (2–6)

Polling concluded across all 126 constituencies, with approximately 24.9 million registered voters. Participation remained high, reflecting strong electoral engagement.

Analysts interpret the turnout as either a sign of anti-incumbency or continued public support for the ruling government.

The contest centred on the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and the Congress-led Assam United Alliance. BJP Alliance: Contested around 90 seats, sharing the rest with allies such as AGP and UPPL.

Congress Alliance: Under Gaurav Gogoi, fielded candidates in about 99 constituencies. Over 722 candidates contested, making it a highly competitive election.

Development, infrastructure, and identity politics dominated the campaign.

Sarma highlighted governance achievements and welfare schemes like ‘Orunodoi’, while Congress focused on unemployment, inflation, and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Exit polls suggest voters leaned towards stability and continuity.

The final results come out on 4 May 2026, though exit polls offer a strong indication. If trends hold, the BJP will secure a third straight term in Assam, further strengthening its regional foothold.

For now, voters appear to have reaffirmed their trust in Himanta Biswa Sarma. Whether these projections translate into reality will be confirmed when the EVMs are opened.

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