What does the BJP’s victory in three states indicate for the Lok Sabha elections of 2024?

2018–2019 show that the results of state assembly elections in crucial states in the Hindi heartland, held four months prior to the Lok Sabha elections, do not provide a reliable indicator of the general sentiment of the populace at large. In December 2018, the Congress easily won Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh; in 2019, the BJP won 62 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats from the three states.

Despite this, the fact that the BJP won all three of the states indicates the party has a significant lead moving into the national elections, even though the results were never meant to be a predictor of what would occur in 2024—especially if the party lost. While Telangana is a stunning victory for the Congress, the ruling doesn’t truly address the party’s political crisis—which is practically existential—north of the Vindhyas.

Rather, the decision shows that Narendra Modi’s popularity and enchanted relationship with voters remain strong, particularly in the central states. It demonstrates how strong and motivated the BJP’s cadres are. It robs the Congress of resources and power that would have been useful in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Furthermore, it demonstrates that, despite the Congress’s inventiveness, the BJP’s narrative resonates with voters more than the Congress’s. The details of the conflict in 2024 become more apparent when you look at each of these elements separately.

The Modi puzzle

When it comes to Modi and state elections, there’s a puzzle. Voters in state elections in India have shown a tendency since 2018 to support the Congress or regional forces without hesitation, even while Modi is running for office. Because these same voters inform reporters and pollsters that they will support the PM in the Lok Sabha elections, these results have rightly been described as the primacy of local issues over national ones. However, it’s also true that, as it did this time around, Modi’s appeal still has an impact on state elections.

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What could be the reason for this apparent contradiction in analysis? There is more going on here than just the BJP’s desire to give Modi credit for victories and shield him from defeat. It is difficult for Modi to outweigh all the drawbacks when the Congress or regional forces are able to combine the appropriate local issues, local leadership, local caste coalitions, and local narrative with intense animosity against the local leadership of the BJP. But even if voters aren’t thrilled with the BJP’s local political agenda, Modi’s connection and presence matter when there aren’t any compelling local alternatives available.