Future Conflicts Likely To Centre On Rare Earth Minerals, Experts Warn

With the advent of advanced technologies, political and economic landscapes are rapidly evolving. Dr Manan Dwivedi (IIPA) and Dr Pavan Chaurasia (India Foundation) note that future conflicts are increasingly likely to revolve around natural resources, particularly energy-critical minerals.

Rare earth elements, essential for technologies like AI, quantum computing, and renewable energy, have become central to international trade and geopolitics.

Rare earth minerals, including Neodymium, Cerium, and Lanthanum, possess unique industrial properties.

Neodymium is crucial for permanent magnets in electric vehicles and wind turbines, while Cerium and Lanthanum are used in glass polishing, electrical components, catalysts, and hybrid cars.

Ensuring a stable supply of these materials is vital for technological advancement and sustainable development.

China currently dominates the global rare earth market, prompting strategic partnerships such as the US-Australia rare minerals agreement.

Despite imposing tariffs and initiating trade measures, the US remains reliant on Chinese supplies for smartphones, automobiles, and defence production. Observers warn that resolving this dependence could take decades.

Geopolitical Implications and International Trade

The US has cited Chinese control over rare earths as a threat to global trade and value chains.

The World Trade Organisation ruled that China had restricted exports in a way that disrupted international markets, highlighting the strategic significance of rare earths as a ‘global commons’.

Analysts argue that equitable access to these resources is critical to preventing monopolisation and ensuring technological and economic stability.

Experts emphasise that future geopolitical tensions will increasingly involve control over rare earth minerals.

Countries aiming for technological and energy leadership must secure critical supplies, diversify sources, and navigate the complex landscape of global trade and diplomacy.

In this evolving scenario, the race for rare earths is not just economic but central to global security and technological supremacy.

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