Bengal Assembly Elections: Can BJP Cross The Magic Numbers? Surveys Signal TMC Losing

As the dates of polling for the West Bengal Assembly elections near, the question everyone is looking to be answered. Who will form the government in Bengal in 2026?

Whether the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) will retain for the fourth term or the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), for the first time since independence, is going to write history in the second coastline state after Odisha.

As per C-Voter, a narrow gap lies in vote shares between TMC and BJP, ie: 44% and 40% respectively.

Another survey conducted by VoteVibe, released on CNN-News18, is giving 98-108 seats to the BJP of the total 294-member Assembly.

Apparently, this figure is a gain for the BJP; however still far from the magic number to form the government, which is 148.

According to the same survey, TMC led by Mamata Banerjee is going to chomp the opposition for the fourth term with 184 to 194 seats.

Vote shares estimations also favour the TMC with 41.9%, whilst the BJP to have 34.9%. Voters around 36.5% said they are willing to vote again for the sitting TMC MLAs, according to the survey.

Past Performances

The previous assembly election catapulted the BJP’s seats in Bengal, from just 3 in 2016 to 77 in 2021. While the ruling TMC brutalised the other remaining opposition, winning a thumping majority with 213 seats.

It was the best ever performance by the party in the state; however, the gain was just two seats compared to the 2016 performance of 211 seats.

The current projections show growth for the BJP, but it is unlikely that it will form the government as per survey data.

Poliq estimates present a different picture for the 2026 polls. According to poliq projections BJP is getting between 52 and 80 seats, far from the majority mark. The TMC is projected to win between 205 and 225 seats, with a vote share of 44- 48%.

BJP Claims Two-Third Majority

The rhetoric of BJP leaders shows their confidence in winning a majority. Amit Shah has said the party will secure a two-thirds majority.

TMC rejected the claim, reminding the BJP of past election predictions that did not materialise.

The party recalled that in 2021, Shah had forecasted the BJP winning over 200 seats, but it won only 77.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, he predicted 30 seats, but the actual number could not exceed 12.

While one poll projects the BJP winning close to 100 seats, other polls estimate a lower tally. The data indicates a lead for the party, yet crossing the majority mark seems far away.

The final outcome will depend on whether or not the BJP can successfully translate its vote share into seats in this closely contested election.

The West Bengal Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in two phases, on April 23 and April 29, and the votes will be counted on May 4.

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